Real Estate development between stagnation and modernisation

Abstract

After a historical peak in 2001 the Dutch non-residential real estate market is characterized by growing vacancy, discontinuity of building construction and uncertainty about development opportunities. The recession in 2008/2009 -and again in 2011/2012- strengthens the uncertainties about the future. Nevertheless the real estate market was in the last six years overflowed with 95 million square meter new buildings. Generally the recent and future building activity primarily depends more on replacement and modernisation, and less on extension of the building stock. However, a sectoral review shows striking differences between the industrial, office, retail, healthcare, educational and public real estate development. This article provides insight in the structural changes in property development and in the consequences for the past and future sectoral building activity. Since the mid-eighties 350-355 million gross square meters new buildings were produced. This may be divided in cheap square meters in industrial and agrarian buildings (2/3) and more expensive square meters in offices, shops and other private and public buildings (1/3). This voluminous production of new buildings was far above what was needed for growth of the building stock in use. The consequence was a considerable replacement and disinvestment of existing buildings. Consequently this led to a strong growth of the young and modern building stock and to reduction of the older stock in use. On sectoral level the quantitative and qualitative relations between stock, extension, replacement and disinvestment vary strongly. This requires sectoral analysis and comparison.