Creating transport models that matter

Abstract

The basic use of transport models is that they help to increase our understanding of the mobility system. In more operational terms, they can be a basis for developing quantitative insights in the past and current state of the system or scenarios about the future. Models are also useful as impact assessment tools in decision making processes or for ex post evaluation. Each purpose places different demands on the availability and quality of information. The issue treated in this paper is how we can improve the organization of the supply side of the modeling market (including the influence of public agents on this market) in a way that the models can meet policy demands of the future. We consider two dimensions of model supply: (1) the contents dimension, i.e. the ability to inform policy makers on specific policy questions and (2) the dimension of governance of model development and model applications. We report on the findings of two studies that were conducted in 2009 and 2010 sponsored by the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. The first study developed a long term vision on important governance aspects such as quality assurance and presentation of model results. The second study developed a long term road map for R&D of passenger and freight transport models. The combined result of the two studies should help to establish a new generation of transport models that is as rich in contents as needed, and as context friendly as possible.