Developing a parametric model for storms to determine the extreme surge level at the Dutch coast

Abstract

To date no study has been done to analyse the effect on water level for the Dutch coast from the passage of storms over the North Sea. This research examines the feasibility of developing a joint probability method to determine the extreme water level for the Dutch coast, resulting from these storms. This has been done by means of a parametric model, which determines the hydraulic boundary conditions from a set of significant storm parameters. The objective of this research is to obtain physical knowledge in predicting the water level for the Dutch coast. This provides a better understanding of the contribution of storm characteristics to high water levels, and can therefore be very useful in the forecasting of extreme surges from the passage of these storms. Secondly, possible changes in meteorology can be taken into account in this model, in contrast to the current method. Another advantage is that the simulated wind field based on storm parameters may also be a tool for simulating and understanding the behaviour of waves for the North Sea and the joint probability with the water level.