Decision-Making in Early Internationalization

A Structured Expert Judgement Approach

Book chapter (2021)

Authors

Michał Zdziarski University of Warsaw
G.F. Nane Applied Probability - EEMCS
Grzegorz Król University of Warsaw
Katarzyna Kowalczyk University of Warsaw
Anna O. Kuźmińska University of Warsaw
Research Group
Applied Probability (EEMCS) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2021 Michał Zdziarski, G.F. Nane, Grzegorz Król, Katarzyna Kowalczyk, Anna O. Kuźmińska
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_23
Forecasting Internationalization Location choice Structured expert judgement International new venture
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Published Date

2021

Language

English

Reuse Rights

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Faculty

Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Department

Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics

Research Group

Applied Probability

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to show how a structured approach to elicit expert judgement (SEJ) can guide the practice of early internationalization. We applied SEJ to forecast some critical issues upon which an innovative start-up wished to base their decision of whether to expand their initial operations in Poland and Czech Republic to Brazil. Sixteen participants of an Executive MBA program acted as experts and underwent the procedure for eliciting their judgements. The performance of experts was quantified in terms of statistical accuracy and informativeness, which were combined to provide a performance-based weight for each expert according to Classical Model. The combination of weighted expert judgements led to improved statistical accuracy and informativeness of the forecast. The procedure demonstrates how entrepreneurs can take advantage of expert knowledge in deciding about risky endeavours when lacking their own experiences and reliable data that can guide their choices.