Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise

Beyond the Bruun rule

Journal article (2011)
Department
Hydraulic Engineering (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: ©2012 The Author(s). This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
DOI: https://doi.org/doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0107-8
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Published Date

11-06-2011

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Source:

Climatic change, 110(Apr.)2012

Faculty

Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Abstract

Accelerated sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century will result in unprecedented coastal recession, threatening billions of dollars worth of coastal developments and infrastructure. Therefore, we cannot continue to dep nd on the highly uncertain coastal recession estimates obtained via the simple, deterministic method (Bruun rule) that has been widely used over the last 50 years. Furthermore, the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks is now requiring probabilistic (rather than deterministic, single value) estimates of coastal recession. This paper describes the development and application of a process based model (PCR model) which provides probabilistic estimates of SLR driven coastal recession. The PCR model is proposed as a more appropriate and defensible method for determining coastal recession due to SLR for planning purposes in the twenty-first century and beyond.