The Impact of Prognostic Uncertainty on Condition-Based Maintenance Scheduling: an Integrated Approach

Abstract

One of the challenges of Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) is to combine health monitoring and predictions with efficient scheduling tools. However, the majority of literature is focusing on the assessment of prognostics algorithms performance. In fact, the added value of these algorithms can only be assessed when considering their impact on maintenance decision process. Furthermore, in practice, when considering the scenario of an aircraft fleet with multiple monitored components, it is hard for a human decision-maker to translate and identify the effect of probabilistic results from all prognostics models from all systems on the maintenance schedule. Therefore, to support the implementation of CBM, the prognostics algorithms have to be integrated within a scheduling framework. Our paper proposes this integration in order to evaluate the impact of different level of prognostics accuracy and uncertainty on the aircraft fleet maintenance scheduling level. First, a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model is used to predict the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) distributions of the monitored components. Second, the maintenance scheduling problem is solved within a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach incorporating a state-of-the-art Partially Observable Monte Carlo algorithm. Implementing a rolling horizon approach, our proposed framework is applied to a fleet of 10 aircraft, each equipped with multiple monitored systems. A case study with multiple different prediction accuracy and uncertainty scenarios is performed to assess the impact of prognostics uncertainty on optimal maintenance scheduling. The performed analysis aims to guide the development and assessment of prognostic models in terms of accuracy and uncertainty in the context of CBM.