The CWI World Cup Competition

Eliciting Sets of Acceptable Gambles

Journal article (2017)

Authors

E. Quaeghebeur Wind Energy - Aerospace Engineering
C. Wesseling Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI)
E. Beauxis-Aussalet Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI)
T. Piovesan Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI)
T. Sterkenburg Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI)
Research Group
Wind Energy (Aerospace Engineering) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2017 Erik Quaeghebeur, C. Wesseling, E. Beauxis-Aussalet, T. Piovesan, T. Sterkenburg
More Info
expand_more

Published Date

2017

Language

English

Reuse Rights

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.

Faculty

Aerospace Engineering

Department

Flow Physics and Technology

Research Group

Wind Energy

Abstract

We present an interface for eliciting sets of acceptable gambles on a three-outcome possibility space, discuss an experiment conducted for testing this interface, and present the results of this experiment. Sets of acceptable gambles form a representation for imprecise probabilities that is close to human behavior and eliciting them directly may improve the quality of the resulting uncertainty
model. The experiment consisted of a betting competition for the 2014 FIFA World Cup: For each match bets were assigned based on the sets of acceptable gambles elicited from the participants. A new algorithm was designed for generating fair bets for assignment. Participant feedback indicated that improving the usability and transparency of the interface would ease the elicitation procedure. The experiment’s results underlined that imprecision is an essential aspect of real-life uncertainty modeling.

Files

Quaeghebeur17a.pdf
(pdf | 0.485 Mb)
Unknown license