The X-factor

Abstract

It is often assumed that young novice drivers overestimate their driving skills and underestimate the risks in traffic; and therefore insufficiently adapt their driving behaviour (e.g. speed or headway) to the specific situation. This balancing of skills and task demands has been called calibration. To study if improved calibration can explain the decreasing crash risk in the first years of the driving career, 500 young novice drivers completed questionnaires and kept a driving diary during two years (from the moment of licensing). The results indicate that, although drivers are less positive about their driving skills than has been previously thought, young novice drivers indeed overestimate their driving skills more than experienced drivers. In addition the results show that overestimation of driving skills correlates with self reported unsafe driving behaviour, such as more violations and less adaptation of driving behaviour (speed) to the specific situation. However, the study did not find evidence that calibration skills of young novice drivers improved in the first two years of the driving career. Therefore it is still uncertain how these skills are developed and if they can be taught in driver training. Until we have a better understanding of how driving experience works, and which aspects are important for reducing crash risk, we can only let drivers gain as much experience as possible in the most safe environment. This can be achieved with constricting drivers’ privileges (e.g. by limiting the number of passengers or restricting driving after dark), or by introducing a period of accompanied driving after licensing.