Goal priorities in multi-goal based planning

Abstract

In this thesis we build a goal based planning framework that takes into account goal priorities. Goal based planning is a type of personal wealth planning, with a focus on the feasibility of an investor's goals. Currently, to take goal priorities into account a dynamic asset allocation is created. We focus on incorporating goal priorities by ensuring goal cash flows reflect investors' preferences, no matter the asset allocation. No money should be spent on less important goals if it jeopardises achieving more important goals. With such a goal cash flow strategy, an investor gains valuable insight into the feasibility of her goals. We build such a framework in two ways. First, we use utility theory. With utility theory, we can quantify an investor's satisfaction with the goal cash flows. For that purpose, we create a total utility function that takes into account goal priorities. Then, we optimise over the goal cash flows such that it results in the highest expected total utility. Second, we use conditional expectations. With conditional expectations, we determine the relationship between earlier wealth and future goal achievability. Therefore, we create a framework with a spending rule based on the conditional expectation. We implement conditional goal cash flows. With conditional cash flows, we create a goal based planning framework that takes into account goal priorities for multi-goal investors.