How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation

Troost, Christian; Huber, Robert; Bell, Andrew R.; van Delden, Hedwig; Filatova, T.; Le, Quang Bao; Lippe, Melvin; Niamir, Leila; Polhill, J. Gareth; Sun, Zhanli; Berger, Thomas

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105559

How to keep it adequate

Title

How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation

Author

Troost, Christian (University of Hohenheim)
Huber, Robert (ETH Zürich)
Bell, Andrew R. (Boston University)
van Delden, Hedwig (Research Institute for Knowledge Systems)
Filatova, T. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis)
Le, Quang Bao (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas)
Lippe, Melvin (Thünen Institute of Forestry)
Niamir, Leila (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg)
Polhill, J. Gareth (The James Hutton Institute)
Sun, Zhanli (Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies)
Berger, Thomas (University of Hohenheim)

Department

Multi Actor Systems

Date

2023

Abstract

There has so far been no shared understanding of validity in agent-based simulation. We here conceptualise validation as systematically substantiating the premises on which conclusions from simulation analysis for a particular modelling context are built. Given such a systematic perspective, validity of agent-based models cannot be ensured if validation is merely understood as an isolated step in the modelling process. Rather, valid conclusions from simulation analysis require context-adequate method choices at all steps of the simulation analysis including model construction, model and parameter inference, uncertainty analysis and simulation. We present a twelve-step protocol to highlight the (often hidden) premises for methodological choices and their link to the modelling context. It is designed to aid modelers in understanding their context and in choosing and documenting context-adequate and mutually consistent methods throughout the modelling process. Its purpose is to assist reviewers and the community as a whole in assessing and discussing context-adequacy.

Subject

Calibration
Generalisation
Model inference
Model validation
Regime shift

To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4f909abd-c4ea-455c-b91a-590a10cdb1e4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105559

ISSN

1364-8152

Source

Environmental Modelling & Software, 159

Part of collection

Institutional Repository