Shipping and shipbuilding scenario evaluations through integration of maritime and macroeconomic models

Abstract

This research focusses on the use of consistent scenarios to help ship owners, banks and other parties with an interest the maritime business get a better grip on the future. Three levels of detail can be distinguished for the maritime industry. The macroeconomic level is the highest and focusses on the behaviour of countries and the trade between them. The next level is that of the maritime markets, newbuilding, secondhand sales, scrapping and trading. The last level is at company level, optimizing the assignment of vessels. While for each level models exists in many shapes and forms. The strength of this thesis is to combine the latest ideas and techniques into one single model spanning all three levels. It creates a much more consistent picture of the effects of a scenario on the future and many different scenarios can be tested. Also the effect of a set of scenarios on the profitability of a vessel can be investigated. The downside is the amount of data required for such a model, as well as the fact that mistakes (in this data) are carried over within the model. The model now available is a good first attempt at such a model. Some simple scenarios were able to demonstrate realistic, but counterintuitive behaviour, that would have been missed with a less complex model. This supports the notion that such a model is necessary for understanding the complex nature of the maritime economy.