The time-cost analysis of the construction project, taking into account risk based on expert knowledge using fuzzy sets

Abstract

The analysis proposed is aimed at a detailed risk review for a given project at the stage of value engineering of the integrated value and risk management. On the basis of the cost estimate and the time schedule established, for individual groups of works, the cost or time deviations for each task are specified. Expert knowledge is used for this purpose. In order to transform the input information, it is necessary to introduce fuzzy modeling, which includes fuzzification, inference and defuzzification processes. The procedure proposed allows for automatic determination of optimistic and pessimistic project scenarios with regard to both time and cost, using simple math operators like the arithmetic average and the center of mass. In this way, we obtain the quantified risks associated with time and cost of the project, which allows for comparison of several technologies for implementation of the same project and selection of the most optimum variant.