Co-Evolutionary Method For Modelling Large Scale Socio-Technical Systems Evolution

Doctoral thesis (2009)

Authors

Contributors

M.P.C. Weijnen (promotor)
G.P.J. Dijkema (promotor)
Department
Section Energy and Industry (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2009 Nikolic, I.
Agent Based Model Modeling method Evolution Complex adaptive system Large scale socio technical system
More Info
expand_more

Published Date

18-11-2009

Reuse Rights

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.

ISBN:

9789079787074

Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Section Energy and Industry

Abstract

Exactly predicting the future of an evolving large scale socio-technical system is impossible. Yet, if we are to sustainably manage the industrial and infrastructure systems our society depends on, we must understand how the actions we take today will affect the evolution of these systems. Simulating how the social and technical networks co-evolve over time allows us to explore possible system futures. This knowledge can help today’s decision makers to steer the system away from undesirable evolutionary pathways. Creating models that capture the complexity of socio-technical systems co-evolution requires multiple formalisms to be encoded in a modeling framework that itself evolves. This thesis presents a method for creating Agent Based Models that suitably represent complex evolving systems. The method involves a co-evolution between the technical aspects of model development, the social process involving the stakeholders, the collection of relevant domain knowledge and the encoding of facts. Through seven case studies the method is demonstrated to yield subsequent generations of richer and ever more useful simulation models.