River science in the light of climate change

Abstract

Climate change and a river’s response to it are likely to be slow processes as compared to the responses to direct human interventions such as engineering works. Therefore, we have to look at timescales of centuries. Such timescales are difficult to be covered by numerical models and, moreover, uncertainties are so large that the degree of detail offered by numerical model simulations hardly pays off in terms of extra information. Therefore, we fall back on simple basic models providing first-order insight into a river’s long-term behaviour. Starting from the basic drivers and controls of large-scale river morphology, we describe longterm changes as can be expected from climate change and long-lasting human interventions.