Adapting to Uncertainty: Re-thinking Critical Infrastructural Systems

Abstract

There are several prevailing issues regarding major altered states of extreme weather events. For instance, storm surges, sea-level rise, and droughts have all resulted in many regions left with critical systems and interdependencies exposed. The impact and risk of modern disasters have caused substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting infrastructure services that modern societies have become heavily reliant upon. Long-lasting disruptions can result in complete losses of essential services such as water, energy supplies, transportation and community networks.

The frequency of these extremities should now be considered as the new norm. Critical infrastructures play a crucial role in supporting society, and if major systems were to fail by a sudden shock, a ripple effect would be felt. A single failure in the system can easily cascade across a network of critical infrastructure (CI) that would render otherwise unaffected sectors inoperable. Presently, there are a myriad of issues in the UK governmental system, as there is little action being done to ensure service continuity and security of supply. Nor is there an agency that has an overall responsibility for defense against system failure.

Within the UK government, a long-term capital program has been launched to provide greater certainty and efficient planning in response to water defense infrastructure. However, the current model has no clear long-term objective for the level of flood resilience that the government is seeking to achieve. Although it will be impossible to prevent all types of flooding, the current planning system is too piecemeal, reactive and disjointed. Thus, this translates to the main research question: how to develop dynamic and adaptable strategies for vulnerable critical systems to address deep uncertainty and flood risk for the Thames Estuary Region?

The thesis aims to address several key elements:
•To develop a methodology and framework to understand how to assess and develop resilient critical infrastructure and services.
•Translating a spatial contingency plan while improving safety and living standards.
•To develop a set of propositions based on research-by-design with insight on up-scaling or replicability of the project.

The design interventions have the intent to increase safety parameters that encourages a faster response and recovery time while improving livability. However, the pitfall of designing without considering an extreme option of how we plan or develop cities can result in more risks compounding in the future. Economic hubs like London will continue to grow dependent on critical infrastructure and this will continue to stress the existing system. Not only will this remain to put pressure on the floodplain, but it will also create higher forms of exposure and risk. The concluding propositions involves a series of safety parameters, states of isolation, a trans-scalar feedback loop and the creation of emergency backbone services. The mindset of the project is not only to achieve physical integrity in assets but to also maintain essential services and operating performance. It is crucial that critical infrastructure systems should continue to grow, learn and adapt as time persists.