Policy analysis for the Dutch rail sector using System Dynamics

Abstract

With a sizeable expected growth of demand for rail transport in the Netherlands the coming decades, and limited resources for expansion of the rail network, intensified utilization of the infrastructure is to be expected. To adequately manage this growth a ppropriate tools for policy analysis are needed. Because of the unstructuredness of many problems in the rail sector and decision-making in a network type environment additional scrutiny is placed on these tools. By performing a modelling study into the interrelations of modal split, mobility and operations using System Dynamics, the possibilities and pitfalls of using this method for policy analysis in Dutch rail system have been explored. Although classical policy analysis has proven to be possible, modelling the operational part of the system has proven challenging. Alternative usages of System Dynamics for enhancing policy analysis, by improving understanding about the complex dynamic behaviour of the system are suggested.