An Agent-Based Social Simulation Model of Belief System Change Applied to the Formation of Consumer Attitudes Towards Clean Energy Technologies

Abstract

The need for an energy transition has arisen in response to a growing discrepancy between (A) what people find important or valuable in life, and (B) the performance of – or value delivered by – the physical energy system. Since the physical energy system has not changed much in recent decades, it is clear that changes in people’s values are responsible for the currently observed mismatch between A and B. It is relevant to investigate how – and/or whether – this divergence can be managed as levels of societal discontent rise in proportion to the incongruity between A and B.

Minimizing the divergence of A relative to B (and vice versa) calls for a deeper understanding of how belief system change happens. Anticipating belief system change may help to forestall the emergence of negative sentiments and consequent destabilization of socio-technical (energy) systems. One way in which belief system change may destabilize the functioning of the Dutch energy system is through altering patterns of consumer energy technology adoption behaviour.

A person’s values interact with her knowledge to determine the attitudes he/she
holds with respect to clean (i.e. low-carbon) energy technologies. These attitudes, in turn, impact one’s intention – and ultimately one’s decision – to adopt a clean energy technology. Hence, value and knowledge change induces attitude shifts which subsequently affect consumer intentions to adopt clean energy technologies. The dynamic interplay of values, knowledge, and attitudes is referred to as belief system change.

This thesis focusses on providing a way of thinking about how belief system change happens within an energy-system’s context. Additionally, this thesis investigates the usefulness of ABMs as research tools for systematically studying belief system change within socio-technical systems (energy systems in particular).