Link prediction is a paradigmatic problem in network science with a variety of applications. In latent space network models this problem boils down to ranking pairs of nodes in the order of increasing latent distances between them. The network model with hyperbolic latent spaces has a number of attractive properties suggesting it must be a powerful tool to predict links, but the past work in this direction reported mixed results. Here we perform a systematic investigation of the utility of latent hyperbolic geometry for link prediction in networks. We first show that some measures of link prediction accuracy are extremely sensitive with respect to inaccuracies in the inference of latent hyperbolic coordinates of nodes. This observation leads us to the development of a hyperbolic network embedding method, the hyperlink embedder, which we show maximizes the accuracy of such inference, compared to existing hyperbolic embedding methods. Applying this method to synthetic and real networks, we then find that when it comes to predicting obvious missing links hyperbolic link prediction—for short, hyperlink—is rarely the best but often competitive, compared to a multitude of other methods. However, hyperlink appears to be at its best, maximizing its competitive power, when the task is to predict less obvious missing links that are really hard to predict. These links include missing links in incomplete networks with large fractions of missing links, missing links between nodes that do not have any common neighbors, and missing links between dissimilar nodes at large latent distances. Overall these results suggest that the harder a specific link prediction task the more seriously one should consider using hyperbolic geometry.

Maximum entropy null models of networks come in different flavors that depend on the type of constraints under which entropy is maximized. If the constraints are on degree sequences or distributions, we are dealing with configuration models. If the degree sequence is constrained exactly, the corresponding microcanonical ensemble of random graphs with a given degree sequence is the configuration model per se. If the degree sequence is constrained only on average, the corresponding grand-canonical ensemble of random graphs with a given expected degree sequence is the soft configuration model. If the degree sequence is not fixed at all but randomly drawn from a fixed distribution, the corresponding hypercanonical ensemble of random graphs with a given degree distribution is the hypersoft configuration model, a more adequate description of dynamic real-world networks in which degree sequences are never fixed but degree distributions often stay stable. Here, we introduce the hypersoft configuration model of weighted networks. The main contribution is a particular version of the model with power-law degree and strength distributions, and superlinear scaling of strengths with degrees, mimicking the properties of some real-world networks. As a byproduct, we generalize the notions of sparse graphons and their entropy to weighted networks.