OPERA-PU-TUD321b Radioactive substances and ionizing radiation are used in medicine, industry, agriculture, re- search, education and electricity production. This generates radioactive waste. In the Neth- erlands, this waste is collected, treated and stored by COVRA (Centrale Organisatie Voor Radioactief Afval). After interim storage for a period of at least 100 years radioactive waste is intended for disposal. There is a world-wide scientific and technical consensus that geological disposal represents the safest long-term option for radioactive waste. Geological disposal is emplacement of radioactive waste in deep underground formations. The goal of geological disposal is long-term isolation of radioactive waste from our living environ- ment in order to avoid exposure of future generations to ionising radiation from the waste. OPERA (OnderzoeksProgramma Eindberging Radioactief Afval) is the Dutch research pro- gramme on geological disposal of radioactive waste. Within OPERA, researchers of different organisations in different areas of expertise will cooper- ate on the initial, conditional Safety Cases for the host rocks Boom Clay and Zechstein rock salt. As the radioactive waste disposal process in the Netherlands is at an early, conceptual phase and the previous research programme has ended more than a decade ago, in OPERA a first preliminary or initial safety case will be developed to structure the research necessary for the eventual development of a repository in the Netherlands. The safety case is conditional since only the long-term safety of a generic repository will be assessed. OPERA is financed by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and the public limited liability company Electriciteits- Produktiemaatschappij Zuid-Nederland (EPZ) and coordinated by COVRA. Further details on OPERA and its outcomes can be accessed at www.covra.nl. @en

OPERA-PU-TUD321d Radioactive substances and ionizing radiation are used in medicine, industry, agriculture, re- search, education and electricity production. This generates radioactive waste. In the Netherlands, this waste is collected, treated and stored by COVRA (Centrale Organisatie Voor Radioactief Afval). After interim storage for a period of at least 100 years radioactive waste is intended for disposal. There is a world-wide scientific and technical consensus that geological disposal represents the safest long-term option for radioactive waste. Geological disposal is emplacement of radioactive waste in deep underground formations. The goal of geological disposal is long-term isolation of radioactive waste from our living environ- ment in order to avoid exposure of future generations to ionising radiation from the waste. OPERA (OnderzoeksProgramma Eindberging Radioactief Afval) is the Dutch research programme on geological disposal of radioactive waste. Within OPERA, researchers of different organisations in different areas of expertise will cooper- ate on the initial, conditional Safety Cases for the host rocks Boom Clay and Zechstein rock salt. As the radioactive waste disposal process in the Netherlands is at an early, conceptual phase and the previous research programme has ended more than a decade ago, in OPERA a first preliminary or initial safety case will be developed to structure the research necessary for the eventual development of a repository in the Netherlands. The safety case is conditional since only the long-term safety of a generic repository will be assessed. OPERA is financed by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and the public limited liability company Electriciteits-Produktiemaatschappij Zuid-Nederland (EPZ) and coordinated by COVRA. Further details on OPERA and its outcomes can be accessed at www.covra.nl. @en

OPERA-PU-TUD321c Radioactive substances and ionizing radiation are used in medicine, industry, agriculture, re- search, education and electricity production. This generates radioactive waste. In the Neth- erlands, this waste is collected, treated and stored by COVRA (Centrale Organisatie Voor Radioactief Afval). After interim storage for a period of at least 100 years radioactive waste is intended for disposal. There is a world-wide scientific and technical consensus that geological disposal represents the safest long-term option for radioactive waste. Geological disposal is emplacement of radioactive waste in deep underground formations. The goal of geological disposal is long-term isolation of radioactive waste from our living environ- ment in order to avoid exposure of future generations to ionising radiation from the waste. OPERA (OnderzoeksProgramma Eindberging Radioactief Afval) is the Dutch research pro- gramme on geological disposal of radioactive waste. Within OPERA, researchers of different organisations in different areas of expertise will cooper- ate on the initial, conditional Safety Cases for the host rocks Boom Clay and Zechstein rock salt. As the radioactive waste disposal process in the Netherlands is at an early, conceptual phase and the previous research programme has ended more than a decade ago, in OPERA a first preliminary or initial safety case will be developed to structure the research necessary for the eventual development of a repository in the Netherlands. The safety case is conditional since only the long-term safety of a generic repository will be assessed. OPERA is financed by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and the public limited liability company Electriciteits- Produktiemaatschappij Zuid-Nederland (EPZ) and coordinated by COVRA. Further details on OPERA and its outcomes can be accessed at www.covra.nl. @en

Radioactive substances and ionizing radiation are used in medicine, industry, agriculture, re- search, education and electricity production. This generates radioactive waste. In the Neth- erlands, this waste is collected, treated and stored by COVRA (Centrale Organisatie Voor Radioactief Afval). After interim storage for a period of at least 100 years radioactive waste is intended for disposal. There is a world-wide scientific and technical consensus that geological disposal represents the safest long-term option for radioactive waste. Geological disposal is emplacement of radioactive waste in deep underground formations. The goal of geological disposal is long-term isolation of radioactive waste from our living environ- ment in order to avoid exposure of future generations to ionising radiation from the waste. OPERA (OnderzoeksProgramma Eindberging Radioactief Afval) is the Dutch research pro- gramme on geological disposal of radioactive waste. Within OPERA, researchers of different organisations in different areas of expertise will cooper- ate on the initial, conditional Safety Cases for the host rocks Boom Clay and Zechstein rock salt. As the radioactive waste disposal process in the Netherlands is at an early, conceptual phase and the previous research programme has ended more than a decade ago, in OPERA a first preliminary or initial safety case will be developed to structure the research necessary for the eventual development of a repository in the Netherlands. The safety case is conditional since only the long-term safety of a generic repository will be assessed. OPERA is financed by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and the public limited liability company Electriciteits- Produktiemaatschappij Zuid-Nederland (EPZ) and coordinated by COVRA. Further details on OPERA and its outcomes can be accessed at www.covra.nl. @en

The Roswinkel gas field in the northeastern part of the Netherlands has been in production between 1980 and 2005. Located at about 2100 m depth, it is a severely faulted anticlinal structure, constituting up to 30 reservoir compartments. Due to the complicated nature of this field, there are large uncertainties in both the fault transmissibilities and the strength of the connected aquifer. Consequently, there is a possibility of undepleted compartments in the reservoir. Pressure depletion due to gas production results in compaction of the reservoir sandstones leading to surface subsidence. The gas production in Roswinkel has induced subsidence of approximately 17 cm above the centre of the field. The subsidence at any point on the surface is a result of compaction over a large area within the reservoir. We estimated the compaction in the reservoir using subsidence data in order to reduce the uncertainties in fault transmissibility and aquifer connection. We employed a previously developed Bayesian inversion method in which prior knowledge is combined with observations. The prior knowledge on the compaction and the associated uncertainties were generated by Monte Carlo simulations of the reservoir in which the fault transmissibilities were varied. In the mean time the geological reality was maintained and the production history was honored. The average prior compaction field is a relatively smooth field extending well into the aquifer, with a typical uncertainty of 40%. Our inversion results show a reservoir in which certain large faults are dividing the reservoir in compartments containing different pressure histories. Furthermore, the aquifer activity appeared to be much weaker than the average prior knowledge suggested. The posterior uncertainty of the compaction levels was reduced to about 10%. Our study demonstrates that a carefully executed inversion exercise can considerably reduce uncertainties, thus giving scope for the identification of undepleted compartments in the reservoir.@en

Subsidence caused by extraction of hydrocarbons and solution salt mining is a sensitive issue in the Netherlands. An extensive legal, technical and organisational framework is in place to ensure a high probability that such subsidence will stay within predefined limits. The key question is: how much subsidence is acceptable and at which rate? And: how can it be reliably assured that (future) subsidence will stay within these limits? To address the issue for the Wadden Sea area, the concept of ‘effective subsidence capacity’ is used. To determine the ‘effective subsidence capacity’, the maximum volumetric rate of relative sea-level rise, that can be accommodated in the long term, without environmental harm, is established first. The volume of sediment that can be transported and deposited by nature into the tidal basin where the subsidence is expected, ultimately determines this ‘limit of acceptable average subsidence rate’. The capability of the tidal basins to ‘capture’ sediment over the lunar cycle period of 18.6 years is the overall rate-determining step. Effective subsidence capacity is then the maximum average subsidence rate available for planning of human activities. It is obtained by subtracting the subsidence volume rate ‘consumed’ by natural relative subsidence in the area (sealevel rise plus natural shallow compaction) from the total long-term acceptable subsidence volume rate limit. In the operational procedure for mining companies, six-years-average expectation values of subsidence rates are used to calculate the maximum allowable production rates. This is done under the provision that production will be reduced or halted if the expected or actual subsidence rate (natural + man induced) is likely to exceed the limit of acceptable subsidence. Monitoring and management schemes ensure that predicted (6-year average) and actual (18.6-year average) subsidence rates stay within the limit of acceptable subsidence rate and that no damage is caused to the protected nature. A GPS based early warning system is used for early detection of unexpected behaviour. In support of SSM (State Supervision of Mines, the government regulator), TNO-AGE (an independent government advisory group) applies an independent Bayesian statistical analysis of all data, as they become available, to calculate the probability of scenario's under which future subsidence will exceed the defined limits. It is external to the operator's annual measurement and control loop and ensures that preventive actions can be taken in time in case such scenarios emerge. Regular communication keeps the authorities and the general public informed on the use of the effective subsidence capacity to demonstrate that the actual average subsidence rate stays strictly within the defined bounds and that, from a scientific point of view, there is no reasonable doubt that damage to the tidal system will not occur now or in the future.@en

Subsidence caused by extraction of hydrocarbons and solution salt mining is a sensitive issue in the Netherlands. An extensive legal, technical and organisational framework is in place to ensure a high probability that such subsidence will stay within predefined limits. The key question is: how much subsidence is acceptable and at which rate? And: how can it be reliably assured that (future) subsidence will stay within these limits? To address the issue for the Wadden Sea area, the concept of ‘effective subsidence capacity’ is used. To determine the ‘effective subsidence capacity’, the maximum volumetric rate of relative sea-level rise, that can be accommodated in the long term, without environmental harm, is established first. The volume of sediment that can be transported and deposited by nature into the tidal basin where the subsidence is expected, ultimately determines this ‘limit of acceptable average subsidence rate’. The capability of the tidal basins to ‘capture’ sediment over the lunar cycle period of 18.6 years is the overall rate-determining step. Effective subsidence capacity is then the maximum average subsidence rate available for planning of human activities. It is obtained by subtracting the subsidence volume rate ‘consumed’ by natural relative subsidence in the area (sealevel rise plus natural shallow compaction) from the total long-term acceptable subsidence volume rate limit. In the operational procedure for mining companies, six-years-average expectation values of subsidence rates are used to calculate the maximum allowable production rates. This is done under the provision that production will be reduced or halted if the expected or actual subsidence rate (natural + man induced) is likely to exceed the limit of acceptable subsidence. Monitoring and management schemes ensure that predicted (6-year average) and actual (18.6-year average) subsidence rates stay within the limit of acceptable subsidence rate and that no damage is caused to the protected nature. A GPS based early warning system is used for early detection of unexpected behaviour. In support of SSM (State Supervision of Mines, the government regulator), TNO-AGE (an independent government advisory group) applies an independent Bayesian statistical analysis of all data, as they become available, to calculate the probability of scenario's under which future subsidence will exceed the defined limits. It is external to the operator's annual measurement and control loop and ensures that preventive actions can be taken in time in case such scenarios emerge. Regular communication keeps the authorities and the general public informed on the use of the effective subsidence capacity to demonstrate that the actual average subsidence rate stays strictly within the defined bounds and that, from a scientific point of view, there is no reasonable doubt that damage to the tidal system will not occur now or in the future.@en

Subsidence caused by extraction of hydrocarbons and solution salt mining is a sensitive issue in the Netherlands. An extensive legal, technical and organisational framework is in place to ensure a high probability that such subsidence will stay within predefined limits. The key question is: how much subsidence is acceptable and at which rate? And: how can it be reliably assured that (future) subsidence will stay within these limits? To address the issue for the Wadden Sea area, the concept of ‘effective subsidence capacity’ is used. To determine the ‘effective subsidence capacity’, the maximum volumetric rate of relative sea-level rise, that can be accommodated in the long term, without environmental harm, is established first. The volume of sediment that can be transported and deposited by nature into the tidal basin where the subsidence is expected, ultimately determines this ‘limit of acceptable average subsidence rate’. The capability of the tidal basins to ‘capture’ sediment over the lunar cycle period of 18.6 years is the overall rate-determining step. Effective subsidence capacity is then the maximum average subsidence rate available for planning of human activities. It is obtained by subtracting the subsidence volume rate ‘consumed’ by natural relative subsidence in the area (sealevel rise plus natural shallow compaction) from the total long-term acceptable subsidence volume rate limit. In the operational procedure for mining companies, six-years-average expectation values of subsidence rates are used to calculate the maximum allowable production rates. This is done under the provision that production will be reduced or halted if the expected or actual subsidence rate (natural + man induced) is likely to exceed the limit of acceptable subsidence. Monitoring and management schemes ensure that predicted (6-year average) and actual (18.6-year average) subsidence rates stay within the limit of acceptable subsidence rate and that no damage is caused to the protected nature. A GPS based early warning system is used for early detection of unexpected behaviour. In support of SSM (State Supervision of Mines, the government regulator), TNO-AGE (an independent government advisory group) applies an independent Bayesian statistical analysis of all data, as they become available, to calculate the probability of scenario's under which future subsidence will exceed the defined limits. It is external to the operator's annual measurement and control loop and ensures that preventive actions can be taken in time in case such scenarios emerge. Regular communication keeps the authorities and the general public informed on the use of the effective subsidence capacity to demonstrate that the actual average subsidence rate stays strictly within the defined bounds and that, from a scientific point of view, there is no reasonable doubt that damage to the tidal system will not occur now or in the future.@en

We implement a Coulomb rate-and-state approach to explore the nonlinear relation between stressing rate and seismicity rate in the Groningen gas field. Coulomb stress rates are calculated, taking into account the 3-D structural complexity of the field and including the poroelastic effect of the differential compaction due to fault offsets. The spatiotemporal evolution of the Groningen seismicity must be attributed to a combination of both (i) spatial variability in the induced stressing rate history and (ii) spatial heterogeneities in the rate-and-state model parameters. Focusing on two subareas of the Groningen field where the observed event rates are very contrasted even though the modeled seismicity rates are of similar magnitudes, we show that the rate-and-state model parameters are spatially heterogeneous. For these two subareas, the very low background seismicity rate of the Groningen gas field can explain the long delay in the seismicity response relative to the onset of reservoir depletion. The characteristic periods of stress perturbations, due to gas production fluctuations, are much shorter than the inferred intrinsic time delay of the earthquake nucleation process. In this regime the modeled seismicity rate is in phase with the stress changes. However, since the start of production and for two subareas of our analysis, the Groningen fault system is unsteady and it is gradually becoming more sensitive to the stressing rate.@en

On the 8th of February 2016, a Mw 4.2 earthquake was detected inside the Los Humeros caldera, located in the eastern sector of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The event occurred after a sharp increase in the injection rate at the Los Humeros Geothermal Field and it was recorded by the seismic monitoring network of the power plant. The earthquake was felt by the local population and it caused damage in the power plant infrastructure. The focal mechanism solution of a previous study based on seismological data shows a reverse movement with a minor left-lateral component: Mw=4.2, depth=1500m, strike=169°, dip=61°, rake=42°. We have performed a geodetic and geomechanical analysis of the seismic source event based on ground deformation inferred from DInSAR. We used ascending and descending Sentinel-1 differential interferograms to retrieve the horizontal and vertical components of the co-seismic deformation. Subsequently, we inverted the estimated deformation to obtain the solution of an activated fault using the Okada model. These results shed light on the geomechanical aspects of the event and can help to understand the effects of field operations interacting with pre-existing structural features and active tectonic processes in the Los Humeros caldera.@en

OPERA-PU-TUD311 The Onderzoeks Programma Eindberging Radioactief Afval (OPERA) is the third national research programme for the geological disposal of radioactive waste in the Netherlands, operating during the period 2011 to 2016. This document is the final report of Work Package 3.1, where the principal technical feasibility of the current OPERA reference design of a radioactive waste disposal facility, in Boom Clay at a depth of about 500m was investigated, during the period 12-2012 till 12-2014. @en

Subsidence can be induced by hydrocarbon production, due to the decrease in pore pressure in the reservoir which causes the reservoir to compact. The subsidence at any point on the surface is a result of the compaction over a large area of the reservoir. The properties of the reservoir and thus the compaction are uncertain. Therefore, an inversion is needed to constrain the knowledge about compaction in the reservoir with the use of subsidence data. We applied a previously developed linearized subsidence inversion method to the Roswinkel gas field. This field is situated in the northeastern part of The Netherlands. The Roswinkel field has been in production between 1980 and 2005. It is a complicated anticlinal structure with many faults in two major directions, dividing the reservoir in up to 30 reservoir compartments. Prior geomechanical modelling of the Roswinkel field revealed deviations in the measured subsidence from the predicted ideal elliptical shape of the subsidence bowl, possibly indicating partly undepleted compartments in this reservoir. The prior knowledge of the reservoir was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. The degree of compartmentalization was varied by perturbing the fault transmissibilities. The prior knowledge, contained in the simulation models, includes the expected compaction field, the standard deviations, and the spatial and temporal correlations between the model elements. Our inversion study on Roswinkel demonstrates our ability to constrain the prior uncertainty of the reservoir model. The inversion exercise gave a clear adaptation of the prior compaction field from a smooth, extended field to a sharply bounded field with internal structure. This means that identification of gas compartments and fault properties by inversion of subsidence measurements is feasible. The prior knowledge is the critical part in the inversion exercise; the most critical steps seem to be the geological and the geodetic analysis. For the latter, new data like space-geodetic observations might help improve the analysis. However, we expect the largest improvement to come from integrating inversion steps, implying that all the different data are taken into account simultaneously.@en

Subsidence can be induced by hydrocarbon production, due to the decrease in pore pressure in the reservoir which causes the reservoir to compact. The subsidence at any point on the surface is a result of the compaction over a large area of the reservoir. The properties of the reservoir and thus the compaction are uncertain. Therefore, an inversion is needed to constrain the knowledge about compaction in the reservoir with the use of subsidence data. We applied a previously developed linearized subsidence inversion method to the Roswinkel gas field. This field is situated in the northeastern part of The Netherlands. The Roswinkel field has been in production between 1980 and 2005. It is a complicated anticlinal structure with many faults in two major directions, dividing the reservoir in up to 30 reservoir compartments. Prior geomechanical modelling of the Roswinkel field revealed deviations in the measured subsidence from the predicted ideal elliptical shape of the subsidence bowl, possibly indicating partly undepleted compartments in this reservoir. The prior knowledge of the reservoir was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. The degree of compartmentalization was varied by perturbing the fault transmissibilities. The prior knowledge, contained in the simulation models, includes the expected compaction field, the standard deviations, and the spatial and temporal correlations between the model elements. Our inversion study on Roswinkel demonstrates our ability to constrain the prior uncertainty of the reservoir model. The inversion exercise gave a clear adaptation of the prior compaction field from a smooth, extended field to a sharply bounded field with internal structure. This means that identification of gas compartments and fault properties by inversion of subsidence measurements is feasible. The prior knowledge is the critical part in the inversion exercise; the most critical steps seem to be the geological and the geodetic analysis. For the latter, new data like space-geodetic observations might help improve the analysis. However, we expect the largest improvement to come from integrating inversion steps, implying that all the different data are taken into account simultaneously.@en