Lukas P.E. Verweij
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Methodology and development of a machine learning probability calculator
Data heterogeneity limits ability to predict recurrence after arthroscopic Bankart repair
Purpose: The aim of this study was to develop and train a machine learning (ML) algorithm to create a clinical decision support tool (i.e., ML-driven probability calculator) to be used in clinical practice to estimate recurrence rates following an arthroscopic Bankart repair (ABR). Methods: Data from 14 previously published studies were collected. Inclusion criteria were (1) patients treated with ABR without remplissage for traumatic anterior shoulder instability and (2) a minimum of 2 years follow-up. Risk factors associated with recurrence were identified using bivariate logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, four ML algorithms were developed and internally validated. The predictive performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration and the Brier score. Results: In total, 5591 patients underwent ABR with a recurrence rate of 15.4% (n = 862). Age <35 years, participation in contact and collision sports, bony Bankart lesions and full-thickness rotator cuff tears increased the risk of recurrence (all p < 0.05). A single shoulder dislocation (compared to multiple dislocations) lowered the risk of recurrence (p < 0.05). Due to the unavailability of certain variables in some patients, a portion of the patient data had to be excluded before pooling the data set to create the algorithm. A total of 797 patients were included providing information on risk factors associated with recurrence. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve) ranged between 0.54 and 0.57 for prediction of recurrence. Conclusion: ML was not able to predict the recurrence following ABR with the current available predictors. Despite a global coordinated effort, the heterogeneity of clinical data limited the predictive capabilities of the algorithm, emphasizing the need for standardized data collection methods in future studies. Level of Evidence: Level IV, retrospective cohort study.
Purpose: To evaluate the current literature on the effects of anatomic changes caused by the Latarjet procedure and to identify areas for future research. Methods: English-language studies that addressed the consequences of anatomic alterations after the open Latarjet procedure were included. Articles written in languages other than English, reviews, and case reports were excluded. Titles and abstracts were screened by 2 authors. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were screened by the same authors. The following data were extracted from the included studies: authors, year of publication, journal, country of origin, aims or purpose, study population and sample size, methods, procedure, intervention type, and key findings that relate to the scoping review questions. Results: Twenty-two studies were included for analysis, yielding the following findings: First, the Latarjet procedure may change the position of the scapula owing to pectoralis minor tenotomy and/or transfer of the conjoint tendon. Second, dissection of the coracoacromial ligament may result in increased superior translation of the humeral head. The impact of this increased translation on patients’ function remains unclear. Third, the subscapularis split shows, overall, better internal rotation strength compared with subscapularis tenotomy. Fourth, passive external rotation may be limited after capsular repair. Fifth, despite the movement of the conjoint tendon, elbow function seems unchanged. Finally, the musculocutaneous nerve is lengthened with a changed penetration angle into the coracobrachialis muscle, but the clinical impact seems limited. Conclusions: The Latarjet procedure leads to anatomic and biomechanical changes in the shoulder. Areas of future research may include better documentation of scapular movement (bilateral, as well as preoperative and postoperative) and elbow function, the effect of (degenerative) rotator cuff ruptures after the Latarjet procedure on shoulder function, and the impact of capsular closure and its contribution to the development of glenohumeral osteoarthritis. Clinical Relevance: This comprehensive overview of anatomic changes after the Latarjet procedure, with its effects on shoulder and elbow function, showed gaps in the current literature. Orthopaedic shoulder surgeons and physical therapists could use our findings when providing patient information and performing future clinical research.
Up to 60% of patients experience recurrence after a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (FTASD), which is often defined as having experienced either dislocation or subluxation. Thus surgical intervention after FTASD is worthy of consideration and is guided by the number of patients who need to receive surgical intervention to prevent 1 redislocation (i.e., number needed to treat), (subjective) health benefit, complication risk, and costs. Operative intervention through arthroscopic stabilization can be successful in reducing recurrence risk in FTASD, as has been shown in multiple randomized controlled trials. Nevertheless, there is a large “gray area” for the indication of arthroscopic stabilization, and it is therefore heavily debated which patients should receive operative treatment. Previous trials showed widely varying redislocation rates in both the intervention and control group, meta-analysis shows 2% to 19% after operative and 20% to 75% after nonoperative treatment, and redislocation rates may not correlate with patient-reported outcomes. The literature is quite heterogeneous, and a major confounder is time to follow-up. Furthermore, there is insufficient standardization of reporting of outcomes and no consensus on definition of risk factors. As a result, surgery is a reasonable intervention for FTASD patients, but in which patients it best prevents redislocation requires additional refinement.