Heatwaves and bushfires cause substantial impacts on society and ecosystems across the globe. Accurate information of heat extremes is needed to support the development of actionable mitigation and adaptation strategies. Regional climate models are commonly used to better understand the dynamics of these events. These models have very large input parameter sets, and the parameters within the physics schemes substantially influence the model’s performance. However, parameter sensitivity analysis (SA) of regional models for heat extremes is largely unexplored. Here, we focus on the southeast Australian region, one of the global hotspots of heat extremes. In southeast Australia Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the widely used regional model to simulate extreme weather events across the region. Hence in this study, we focus on the sensitivity of WRF model parameters to surface meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed during two extreme heat events over southeast Australia. Due to the presence of multiple parameters and their complex relationship with output variables, a machine learning (ML) surrogate-based global SA method is considered for the SA. The ML surrogate-based Sobol SA is used to identify the sensitivity of 24 adjustable parameters in seven different physics schemes of the WRF model. Results show that out of these 24, only three parameters, namely the scattering tuning parameter, multiplier of saturated soil water content, and profile shape exponent in the momentum diffusivity coefficient, are important for the considered meteorological variables. These SA results are consistent for the two different extreme heat events. Further, we investigated the physical significance of sensitive parameters. This study’s results will help in further optimising WRF parameters to improve model simulation. ... Read more

Climate change (CC) is likely to affect the thousands of bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets - STIs) around the world. Any such CC impacts on the stability of STIs, which governs the dynamics of STIs as well as that of the inlet-adjacent coastline, can result in significant socio-economic consequences due to the heavy human utilisation of these systems and their surrounds. This article demonstrates the application of a process based snap-shot modelling approach, using the coastal morphodynamic model Delft3D, to 3 case study sites representing the 3 main STI types; Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3). The 3 case study sites (Negombo lagoon – Type 1, Kalutara lagoon – Type 2, and Maha Oya river – Type 3) are all located along the southwest coast of Sri Lanka.
After successful hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model validation at the 3 case study sites, CC impact assessment are undertaken for a high end greenhouse gas emission scenario. Future CC modified wave and riverflow conditions are derived from a regional scale application of spectral wave models (WaveWatch III and SWAN) and catchment scale applications of a hydrologic model (CLSM) respectively, both of which are forced with IPCC Global Climate Model output dynamically downscaled to ~50 km resolution over the study area with the stretched grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM. Results show that while all 3 case study STIs will experience significant CC driven variations in their level of stability, none of them will change Type by the year 2100. Specifically, the level of stability of the Type 1 inlet will decrease from ‘Good’ to ‘Fair to poor’ by 2100, while the level of (locational) stability of the Type 2 inlet will also decrease with a doubling of the annual migration distance. Conversely, the stability of the Type 3 inlet will increase, with the time till inlet closure increasing by ~75%. The main contributor to the overall CC effect on the stability of all 3 STIs is CC driven variations in wave conditions and resulting changes in longshore sediment transport; not Sea level rise as commonly believed. ... Read more