A description is given of a model developed for the prediction of the dissipation of energy in random waves breaking on a beach. The dissipation rate per breaking wave is estimated from that in a bore of corresponding height, while the probability of occurrence of breaking waves is estimated on the basis of a wave height distribution with an upper cut-off which in shallow water is determined mainly by the local depth. A comparison with measurements of wave height decay and set-up, on a plane beach and on a beach with a bar-trough profile, indicates that the model is capable of predicting qualitatively and quantitatively all the main features of the data.