Human-induced land subsidence causes many coastal areas to sink centimetres per year, exacerbating relative sea level rise (RSLR). While cities combat this problem through investment in coastal infrastructure, rural areas are highly dependent on the persistence of protective coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes. To shed light on the future of low-lying rural areas in the face of RSLR, we here studied a 20-km-long rural coastline neighbouring a sinking city in Indonesia, reportedly sinking with 8–20 cm per year. By measuring water levels in mangroves and quantifying floor raisings of village houses, we show that, while villages experienced rapidly rising water levels, their protective mangroves experience less rapid changes in RSLR. Individual trees were able to cope with RSLR rates of 4.3 (95% confidence interval 2.3–6.3) cm per year through various root adaptations when sediment was available locally. However, lateral retreat of the forest proved inevitable, with RSLR rates up to four times higher than foreshore accretion, forcing people from coastal communities to migrate as the shoreline retreated. Whereas local RSLR may be effectively reduced by better management of groundwater resources, the effects of RSLR described here predict a gloomy prospect for rural communities that are facing globally induced sea level rise beyond the control of local or regional government.

The value of mangroves has been widely acknowledged, but mangrove forests continue to decline due to numerous anthropogenic stressors. The impact of plastic waste is however poorly known, even though the amount of plastic litter is the largest in the region where mangroves are declining the fastest: South East Asia. In this study, we examine the extent of the plastic waste problem in mangroves along the north coast of Java, Indonesia. First, we investigate how much of the forest floor is covered by plastic in the field (in number of items per m² and in percentage of the forest floor covered by plastic), and if plastic is also buried in the upper layers of the sediment. We then experimentally investigate the effects of a range of plastic cover percentages (0%, 50% and 100%) on root growth, stress response of the tree and tree survival over a period of six weeks. Field monitoring showed that plastic was abundant, with 27 plastic items per m² on average, covering up to 50% of the forest floor at multiple locations. Moreover, core data revealed that plastic was frequently buried in the upper layers of the sediment where it becomes immobile and can create prolonged anoxic conditions. Our experiment subsequently revealed that prolonged suffocation by plastic caused immediate pneumatophore growth and potential leaf loss. However, trees in the 50%-plastic cover treatment proved surprisingly resilient and were able to maintain their canopy over the course of the experiment, whereas trees in the 100%-plastic cover treatment had a significantly decreased leaf area index and survival by the end of the experiment. Our findings demonstrate that mangrove trees are relatively resilient to partial burial by plastic waste. However, mangrove stands are likely to deteriorate eventually if plastic continues to accumulate.