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P. Kerfriden

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A Critical Comparison between Probabilistic Models for Discretization Error

Journal article (2026) - Anne Poot, Iuri Rocha, Pierre Kerfriden, Frans van der Meer
When using the finite element method (FEM) in inverse problems, its discretization error can produce parameter estimates that are inaccurate and overconfident. The Bayesian finite element method (BFEM) provides a probabilistic model for the epistemic uncertainty due to discretization error. In this work, we apply BFEM to various inverse problems and compare its performance to the random mesh finite element method (RM-FEM) and the statistical finite element method (statFEM), which serve as a frequentist and inference-based counterpart to BFEM. We find that by propagating this uncertainty to the posterior, BFEM can produce more accurate parameter estimates and prevent overconfidence compared to FEM. Because the BFEM covariance operator is designed to leave uncertainty only in the appropriate space, orthogonal to the FEM basis, BFEM is able to outperform RM-FEM, which does not have such a structure to its covariance. Although it is also possible to use a model misspecification formulation such as statFEM to infer the discretization error downstream rather than model it at the source, the feasibility of such an approach is contingent on the availability of sufficient data. We find that the BFEM is the most robust way to consistently propagate uncertainty due to discretization error to the posterior of a Bayesian inverse problem. ...
Abstract (2025) - Anne Poot, Iuri Rocha, Pierre Kerfriden, Frans van der Meer
A common challenge in methods for uncertainty quantification (e.g. uncertainty propagation, inverse modeling and data assimilation) is that they typically require many model evaluations in order to propagate the uncertainty in the inputs to the quantity of interest. Especially when the model evaluation requires solving a partial differential equation numerically, computational expenses can skyrocket. To alleviate these computational costs, projection-based model order reduction techniques (proper orthogonal decomposition, balanced truncation, reduced basis methods, etc.) are often applied, which aim to minimize the model complexity. However, these reduced-order models unavoidably introduce an approximation error, presenting the modeler with a difficult trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Often, it is unclear what is the effect of neglecting higher-order modes on the distributions that are obtained for the quantity of interest.

In this work, we present a Bayesian formulation of projection-based reduced order models. The full-order model is endowed with a carefully chosen Gaussian prior distribution, for which each basis function of the reduced-order model functions as an observation. Performing the Bayesian conditioning yields a posterior distribution whose mean recovers the classic reduced-order model solution and whose posterior covariance can be related directly to the reduced-order model error. By modeling this error probabilistically, it can be taken into account consistently by propagating it to the quantity of interest. We present a theoretical description of the method, along with an empirical study applying our Bayesian reduced-order model to a Bayesian inverse problem. ...
Journal article (2024) - Anne Poot, Pierre Kerfriden, Iuri Rocha, Frans van der Meer
In this work, the uncertainty associated with the finite element discretization error is modeled following the Bayesian paradigm. First, a continuous formulation is derived, where a Gaussian process prior over the solution space is updated based on observations from a finite element discretization. To avoid the computation of intractable integrals, a second, finer, discretization is introduced that is assumed sufficiently dense to represent the true solution field. A prior distribution is assumed over the fine discretization, which is then updated based on observations from the coarse discretization. This yields a posterior distribution with a mean that serves as an estimate of the solution, and a covariance that models the uncertainty associated with this estimate. Two particular choices of prior are investigated: a prior defined implicitly by assigning a white noise distribution to the right-hand side term, and a prior whose covariance function is equal to the Green’s function of the partial differential equation. The former yields a posterior distribution with a mean close to the reference solution, but a covariance that contains little information regarding the finite element discretization error. The latter, on the other hand, yields posterior distribution with a mean equal to the coarse finite element solution, and a covariance with a close connection to the discretization error. For both choices of prior a contradiction arises, since the discretization error depends on the right-hand side term, but the posterior covariance does not. We demonstrate how, by rescaling the eigenvalues of the posterior covariance, this independence can be avoided. ...

Embedding constitutive models in a data-driven surrogate

Journal article (2023) - M. A. Maia, I. B.C.M. Rocha, P. Kerfriden, F. P. van der Meer
Driven by the need to accelerate numerical simulations, the use of machine learning techniques is rapidly growing in the field of computational solid mechanics. Their application is especially advantageous in concurrent multiscale finite element analysis (FE2) due to the exceedingly high computational costs often associated with it and the high number of similar micromechanical analyses involved. To tackle the issue, using surrogate models to approximate the microscopic behavior and accelerate the simulations is a promising and increasingly popular strategy. However, several challenges related to their data-driven nature compromise the reliability of surrogate models in material modeling. The alternative explored in this work is to reintroduce some of the physics-based knowledge of classical constitutive modeling into a neural network by employing the actual material models used in the full-order micromodel to introduce non-linearity. Thus, path-dependency arises naturally since every material model in the layer keeps track of its own internal variables. For the numerical examples, a composite Representative Volume Element with elastic fibers and elasto-plastic matrix material is used as the microscopic model. The network is tested in a series of challenging scenarios and its performance is compared to that of a state-of-the-art Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). A remarkable outcome of the novel framework is the ability to naturally predict unloading/reloading behavior without ever seeing it during training, a stark contrast with popular but data-hungry models such as RNNs. Finally, the proposed network is applied to FE2 examples to assess its robustness for application in nonlinear finite element analysis. ...
Journal article (2023) - I.B.C.M. Rocha, P. Kerfriden, F.P. van der Meer
In this work we present a hybrid physics-based and data-driven learning approach to construct surrogate models for concurrent multiscale simulations of complex material behavior. We start from robust but inflexible physics-based constitutive models and increase their expressivity by allowing a subset of their material parameters to change in time according to an evolution operator learned from data. This leads to a flexible hybrid model combining a data-driven encoder and a physics-based decoder. Apart from introducing physics-motivated bias to the resulting surrogate, the internal variables of the decoder act as a memory mechanism that allows path dependency to arise naturally. We demonstrate the capabilities of the approach by combining an FNN encoder with several plasticity decoders and training the model to reproduce the macroscopic behavior of fiber-reinforced composites. The hybrid models are able to provide reasonable predictions of unloading/reloading behavior while being trained exclusively on monotonic data. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional surrogates mapping strains to stresses, the specific architecture of the hybrid model allows for lossless dimensionality reduction and straightforward enforcement of frame invariance by using strain invariants as the feature space of the encoder. ...
Journal article (2021) - I. B.C.M. Rocha, P. Kerfriden, F. P. van der Meer
Concurrent multiscale finite element analysis (FE2) is a powerful approach for high-fidelity modeling of materials for which a suitable macroscopic constitutive model is not available. However, the extreme computational effort associated with computing a nested micromodel at every macroscopic integration point makes FE2 prohibitive for most practical applications. Constructing surrogate models able to efficiently compute the microscopic constitutive response is therefore a promising approach in enabling concurrent multiscale modeling. This work presents a reduction framework for adaptively constructing surrogate models for FE2 based on statistical learning. The nested micromodels are replaced by a machine learning surrogate model based on Gaussian Processes (GP). The need for offline data collection is bypassed by training the GP models online based on data coming from a small set of fully-solved anchor micromodels that undergo the same strain history as their associated macroscopic integration points. The Bayesian formalism inherent to GP models provides a natural tool for online uncertainty estimation through which new observations or inclusion of new anchor micromodels are triggered. The surrogate constitutive manifold is constructed with as few micromechanical evaluations as possible by enhancing the GP models with gradient information and the solution scheme is made robust through a greedy data selection approach embedded within the conventional finite element solution loop for nonlinear analysis. The sensitivity to model parameters is studied with a tapered bar example with plasticity and the framework is further demonstrated with the elastoplastic analysis of a plate with multiple cutouts and with a crack growth example for mixed-mode bending. Although not able to handle non-monotonic strain paths in its current form, the framework is found to be a promising approach in reducing the computational cost of FE2, with significant efficiency gains being obtained without resorting to offline training. ...

A critical comparison between a classical mesoscale constitutive model, hyper-reduction and neural networks

Journal article (2020) - I. B.C.M. Rocha, P. Kerfriden, F. P. van der Meer
Although being a popular approach for the modeling of laminated composites, mesoscale constitutive models often struggle to represent material response for arbitrary load cases. A better alternative in terms of accuracy is to use the FE2 technique to upscale microscopic material behavior without loss of generality, but the associated computational effort can be extreme. It is therefore interesting to explore alternative surrogate modeling strategies that maintain as much of the fidelity of FE2 as possible while still being computationally efficient. In this work, three surrogate modeling approaches are compared in terms of accuracy, efficiency and calibration effort: the state-of-the-art mesoscopic plasticity model by Vogler et al. (Vogler et al., 2013), regularized feed-forward neural networks and hyper-reduced-order models obtained by combining the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and Empirical Cubature Method (ECM) techniques. Training datasets are obtained from a Representative Volume Element (RVE) model of the composite microstructure with a number of randomly-distributed linear-elastic fibers surrounded by a matrix with pressure-dependent plasticity. The approaches are evaluated with a comprehensive set of numerical tests comprising pure stress cases and three different stress combinations relevant in the design of laminated composites. The models are assessed on their ability to accurately reproduce the training cases as well as on how well they are able to predict unseen stress combinations. Gains in execution time are compared by using the trained surrogates in the FE2 model of an interlaminar shear test. ...