We studied energy efficiency trends in the Dutch manufacturing industry between 1995 and 2003 using indicators based on publicly available physical production and specific energy consumption data. We estimated annual primary energy efficiency improvements in this period at 1.3% on average, with the individual sub-sectors ranging between -0.1% and 1.5%. Energy efficiency developments with respect to electricity, fuels/heat and non-energy use have been monitored separately and are shown to differ significantly (for the sum of the sectors studied: 1.9% for electricity, 2.6% for fuels/heat and -0.1% for non-energy use). We combined our results with those from a previous, similar study for 1980-1995 and show that over the full time period, efficiency improvements of 1% per year have been achieved on average. Based on comparison with other sources and a detailed uncertainty analysis, we conclude that we developed a reliable top-down monitoring framework for studying energy efficiency trends of the manufacturing industry that can also be applied in other countries where similar data are available. We also showed that substantial differences exist between energy consumption data available from energy statistics and according to the Long Term Agreement monitoring reports, stressing the need for ongoing independent checks of available energy consumption data to avoid problems in future evaluations of energy efficiency policies.

As part of an overall analysis of future energy use and supply in the Netherlands, work has been carried out on the possible shape of the future public load pattern. To this end a study has been performed concerning the time dependence of the electricity demand of fifty user types. These demand patterns have been summed up to get a total demand which compared satisfactorily with the realized pattern for the year 1980. In order to construct a demand pattern for the year 2010, the demand patterns were summed up, taking into account a demand pattern with increased differences between high and low demand. However, this change has only a small effect on the performance of a diversified electricity production park.