Dams can produce electricity and ensure water security, but at the same time they radically alter the hydrological regime of rivers with significant consequences for the economic and environmental welfare of the region in which they are located. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is currently the most frequently used framework for the economic evaluations of dams. Changes at different time scales influence the economic appraisal of dams. However, change and adaptation at both the operational and the structural level are often not included in the CBA evaluation. Not including change and adaptation limits the realistic estimation of cost and benefits, and the appreciation of resilient solutions that offer satisfactory responses for a large set of future scenarios. In this paper we consider the specific features of large dams in an African context, and identify methods for an economic evaluation that takes into account for change and adaptation at both the operational and the structural scales, as well as their interplay. These methods are then applied to the ex-ante evaluation of a system of existing dams on the Senegal River Valley. Results indicate the economic potential of the dams under changing conditions, for both adaptive and non-adaptive reservoir operation strategies.@en

Manantali is a dam located on the Senegal River and is mainly used for hydropower production. Before the dam's construction, the annual river flood alimented the flood recession agriculture, a practice based on natural irrigation and fertilization of the flood plain, used traditionally by the local populations downstream. Analysis of the actual reservoir operation shows that annual floods have been largely reduced for the benefit of hydropower production. Moreover, the Senegal River Basin authority is evaluating the construction of different new dams, which could reduce even further the water available for flood support, given that the current operational focus is on satisfying hydropower demand. This study investigates the effects of an optimal reservoir operation strategy that maximizes hydropower production only, analyzing the results of this strategy in terms of effects on the two main objectives, i.e., hydropower production and flood support. The problem of finding optimal reservoir operation strategy is solved by applying the stochastic dual dynamic programming method. Results show the existence of a release strategy in which both objectives improve (+9% for hydropower and +7% for flood production) with respect to the historically observed operation. This solution, however, may require the electric system to compensate for the variability in energy supply along the year.@en