Robust and reliable models are needed to understand how coastlines will evolve over the coming decades, driven by both natural variability and climate change. This study evaluated how accurately five popular ‘reduced-complexity’ models replicate multi-decadal shoreline change at Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, a sandy embayment in Sydney, Australia. Measured shoreline positions derived from approximately monthly field surveys were used for 20-year calibration and 20-year validation periods. The models performed similarly on average but with large variability between transects. The set-up of several models was modified to compensate for their sensitivity to imperfect input wave data, and further site-specific improvements were identified. Capturing interannual to decadal-scale variability in cross-shore and longshore dynamics at this site was challenging for all five models. Models appeared to aggregate key processes at this timescale into parameter values rather than representing them directly. This suggests time-varying parameters or changes to model structure may be necessary for decadal-scale simulations.

The storm impact scale of Sallenger (J Coast Res 890–895, 2000) was tested on a partially engineered beach. This scale is supposed to provide a convenient tool for coastal managers to categorize the storm impact at the shore. It is based on the relation between the elevation of storm wave runup and the elevation of a critical geomorphic or man-made structures in the present study. Two different approaches were tested to estimate the elevation of extreme storm wave runup: (1) a parametric model based on offshore wave conditions and local beach slope and (2) the XBeach process-based model that solves implicitly the runup. The study shows comparisons between impact regimes computed with the two methods and those derived from video observations acquired during 2 weeks while the site was battered by three consecutive storms. Storms scenario including wave conditions with higher return periods and different tidal range were also investigated. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods used to compute extreme water level are then compared, and guidelines for the development of early warning system are drawn.