Atmospheric sensitivities (gradients), quantifying the atmospheric response to emissions or other perturbations, can provide meaningful insights on the underlying atmospheric chemistry or transport processes. Atmospheric adjoint modeling enables the calculation of receptor-oriented sensitivities of model outputs of interest to input parameters (e.g., emissions), overcoming the numerical cost of conventional (forward) modeling. The adjoint of the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry-transport model is a widely used such model, but prior to v36 it lacked extensive stratospheric capabilities. Here, we present the development and evaluation of the discrete adjoint of the global chemistry-transport model (CTM) GEOS-Chem unified chemistry extension (UCX) for stratospheric applications, which extends the existing capabilities of the GEOS-Chem adjoint to enable the calculation of sensitivities that include stratospheric chemistry and interactions. This development adds 37 new tracers, 273 kinetic and photolysis reactions, an updated photolysis scheme, treatment of stratospheric aerosols, and all other features described in the original UCX paper. With this development the GEOS-Chem adjoint model is able to capture the spatial, temporal, and speciated variability in stratospheric ozone depletion processes, among other processes. We demonstrate its use by calculating 2-week sensitivities of stratospheric ozone to precursor species and show that the adjoint captures the Antarctic ozone depletion potential of active halogen species, including the chlorine activation and deactivation process. The spatial variations in the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to NOx emissions are also described. This development expands the scope of research questions that can be addressed by allowing stratospheric interactions and feedbacks to be considered in the tropospheric sensitivity and inversion applications.@en

Depletion of stratospheric ozone, and the associated increase in population exposure to UV radiation, is an environmental consequence of high-altitude, supersonic aviation. Assessments of the impacts of emissions from subsonic aircraft – which fly at lower altitudes – have instead shown that they produce a net increase, rather than decrease, in global net ozone, suggesting the existence of an intermediate “column ozone neutral” cruise altitude. Knowing this altitude and its variation with factors such as latitude, season, and fuel composition could provide a pathway towards reducing the environmental impacts of aviation, but would require a prohibitive number of atmospheric simulations. We instead use the newly developed GEOS-Chem tropospheric-stratospheric adjoint to identify the location of the column ozone-neutral aircraft cruise altitude as a function of these factors. We show that, although the mean ozone neutral altitude is at 13.5 km globally, this varies from 14.6 km to 12.5 km between the equator and 60°N. This altitude varies by less than a kilometer between seasons, but the net depletion resulting from flying at greater altitudes varies by a factor of two. We also find that eliminating fuel sulfur would result in a neutral altitude 0.5–1.0 km greater than when conventional jet fuel is burned. Our results imply that a low Mach number supersonic aircraft burning low-sulfur fuel (e.g. biofuels) may be able to achieve net zero global ozone change. However, for a fleet to achieve ozone neutrality will require careful consideration of the non-linear variation in sensitivity with altitude and latitude.

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Expanded use of reduced complexity approaches in epidemiology and environmental justice investigations motivates detailed evaluation of these modeling approaches. Chemical transport models (CTMs) remain the most complete representation of atmospheric processes but are limited in applications that require large numbers of runs, such as those that evaluate individual impacts from large numbers of sources. This limitation motivates comparisons between modern CTM-derived techniques and intentionally simpler alternatives. We model population-weighted PM2.5 source impacts from each of greater than 1100 coal power plants operating in the United States in 2006 and 2011 using three approaches: (1) adjoint PM2.5 sensitivities calculated by the GEOS-Chem CTM; (2) a wind field-based Lagrangian model called HyADS; and (3) a simple calculation based on emissions and inverse source-receptor distance. Annual individual power plants’ nationwide population-weighted PM2.5 source impacts calculated by HyADS and the inverse distance approach have normalized mean errors between 20 and 28% and root mean square error ranges between 0.0003 and 0.0005 µg m−3 compared with adjoint sensitivities. Reduced complexity approaches are most similar to the GEOS-Chem adjoint sensitivities nearby and downwind of sources, with degrading performance farther from and upwind of sources particularly when wind fields are not accounted for.@en

Outdoor air pollution adversely affects human health and is estimated to be responsible for five to ten per cent of the total annual premature mortality in the contiguous United States^1-3. Combustion emissions from a variety of sources, such as power generation or road traffic, make a large contribution to harmful air pollutants such as ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5)⁴. Efforts to mitigate air pollution have focused mainly on the relationship between local emission sources and local air quality². Air quality can also be affected by distant emission sources, however, including emissions from neighbouring federal states^5,6. This cross-state exchange of pollution poses additional regulatory challenges. Here we quantify the exchange of air pollution among the contiguous United States, and assess its impact on premature mortality that is linked to increased human exposure to PM_2.5 and ozone from seven emission sectors for 2005 to 2018. On average, we find that 41 to 53 per cent of air-quality-related premature mortality resulting from a state's emissions occurs outside that state. We also find variations in the cross-state contributions of different emission sectors and chemical species to premature mortality, and changes in these variations over time. Emissions from electric power generation have the greatest cross-state impacts as a fraction of their total impacts, whereas commercial/residential emissions have the smallest. However, reductions in emissions from electric power generation since 2005 have meant that, by 2018, cross-state premature mortality associated with the commercial/residential sector was twice that associated with power generation. In terms of the chemical species emitted, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide emissions caused the most cross-state premature deaths in 2005, but by 2018 primary PM_2.5 emissions led to cross-state premature deaths equal to three times those associated with sulfur dioxide emissions. These reported shifts in emission sectors and emission species that contribute to premature mortality may help to guide improvements to air quality in the contiguous United States.

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Fossil fuel combustion releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere along with co-pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and others. These emissions result in environmental externalities primarily in terms of climate and air quality. Here we quantify the cost of co-pollutant emissions per ton of CO ₂ emissions from US electric power generation. We measure the co-pollutant cost of carbon (CPCC) as the total value of statistical life associated with US-based premature mortalities attributable to co-pollutant emissions, per mass of CO ₂. We find an average CPCC of ∼$45 per metric ton (mt) of CO ₂ for the year 2011 (in 2017 USD). This is ∼20% higher than the central Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) measure of climate damages that was used by the Obama administration in its regulatory impact analysis for the Clean Power Plan (CPP), and >8 times higher than the SCC used by the Trump administration in its analysis for the Plan's repeal. At the state-level, the CPCC ranged from ∼$7/mt CO ₂ for Arizona to ∼$96/mt CO ₂ for New Jersey. We calculate the CPCC trends from 2002 to 2017 and find a 71% decrease at the national level, contributing to total savings of ∼$1 trillion in averted mortality from power plant emissions over this period. By decomposing the aggregate and fuel-specific co-pollutant intensities into simultaneous (CO ₂-driven) and autonomous components, we conclude that the CPCC trends originated mainly from targeted efforts to reduce co-pollutant emissions, e.g. through fuel switching (from coal to natural gas) and autonomous changes in co-pollutant emissions. The results suggest that the overall benefit to society from policies to curtail carbon emissions may be enhanced by focusing on pollution sources where the associated air-quality co-benefits are greatest. At the same time, continued efforts to reduce co-pollutant intensities, if technologically feasible, could help to mitigate the air-quality damages of the CPP's repeal and replacement.

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In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of 'defeat devices' designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests have yielded mean on-road NO _x emissions for these cars of 0.85 g km ^-1 , over four times the applicable European limit of 0.18 g km ^-1 . This study estimates the human health impacts and costs associated with excess emissions from VW cars driven in Germany. A distribution of on-road emissions factors is derived from existing measurements and combined with sales data and a vehicle fleet model to estimate total excess NO _x emissions. These emissions are distributed on a 25 by 28 km grid covering Europe, using the German Federal Environmental Protection Agency's (UBA) estimate of the spatial distribution of NO _x emissions from passenger cars in Germany. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model to predict the corresponding increase in population exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone in the European Union, Switzerland, and Norway, and a set of concentration-response functions to estimate mortality outcomes in terms of early deaths and of life-years lost. Integrated over the sales period (2008-2015), we estimate median mortality impacts from VW excess emissions in Germany to be 1200 premature deaths in Europe, corresponding to 13 000 life-years lost and 1.9 billion EUR in costs associated with life-years lost. Approximately 60% of mortality costs occur outside Germany. For the current fleet, we estimate that if on-road emissions for all affected VW vehicles in Germany are reduced to the applicable European emission standard by the end of 2017, this would avert 29 000 life-years lost and 4.1 billion 2015 EUR in health costs (median estimates) relative to a counterfactual case with no recall.

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The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has alleged that Volkswagen Group of America (VW) violated the Clean Air Act (CAA) by developing and installing emissions control system 'defeat devices' (software) in model year 2009-2015 vehicles with 2.0 litre diesel engines. VW has admitted the inclusion of defeat devices. On-road emissions testing suggests that in-use NO_x emissions for these vehicles are a factor of 10 to 40 above the EPA standard. In this paper we quantify the human health impacts and associated costs of the excess emissions. We propagate uncertainties throughout the analysis. A distribution function for excess emissions is estimated based on available in-use NO_x emissions measurements. We then use vehicle sales data and the STEP vehicle fleet model to estimate vehicle distance traveled per year for the fleet. The excess NO_x emissions are allocated on a 50 km grid using an EPA estimate of the light duty diesel vehicle NO_x emissions distribution. We apply a GEOS-Chem adjoint-based rapid air pollution exposure model to produce estimates of particulate matter and ozone exposure due to the spatially resolved excess NO_x emissions. A set of concentration-response functions is applied to estimate mortality and morbidity outcomes. Integrated over the sales period (2008-2015) we estimate that the excess emissions will cause 59 (95% CI: 10 to 150) early deaths in the US. When monetizing premature mortality using EPA-recommended data, we find a social cost of ∼$450m over the sales period. For the current fleet, we estimate that a return to compliance for all affected vehicles by the end of 2016 will avert ∼130 early deaths and avoid ∼$840m in social costs compared to a counterfactual case without recall.

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Combustion emissions constitute the largest source of anthropogenic emissions in the US, and lead to the degradation of air quality and human health. In Part I we computed the population fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure and number of early deaths caused by emissions from six major sectors: electric power generation, industry, commercial and residential activities, road transportation, marine transportation and rail transportation. In Part II we attribute exposure and early deaths to sectors, emissions species, time of emission, and location of emission. We apply a long-term adjoint sensitivity analysis and calculate the four dimensional sensitivities (time and space) of PM_2.5 exposure with respect to each emissions species. Epidemiological evidence is used to relate increased population exposure to premature mortalities. This is the first regional application of the adjoint sensitivity analysis method to characterize long-term air pollution exposure. (A global scale application has been undertaken related to intercontinental pollution.) We find that for the electric power generation sector 75% of the attributable PM_2.5 exposure is due to SO₂ emissions, and 80% of the annual impacts are attributed to emissions from April to September. In the road transportation sector, 29% of PM_2.5 exposure is due to NO_x emissions and 33% is from ammonia (NH₃), which is a result of emissions after-treatment technologies. We estimate that the benefit of reducing NH₃ emissions from road transportation is ~20 times that of NO_x per unit mass. 75% of the road transportation ammonia impacts occur during the months October to March. We publicly release the sensitivity matrices computed, noting their potential use as a rapid air quality policy assessment tool.

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Aircraft movements on the airport surface are responsible for CO2 emissions that contribute to climate change and other emissions that affect air quality and human health. While the potential for optimizing aircraft surface movements to minimize CO2 emissions has been assessed, the implications of CO2 emissions minimization for air quality have not been quantified. In this paper, we identify conditions in which there is a tradeoff between CO2 emissions and population exposure to O3 and secondary PM2.5 - i.e. where decreasing fuel burn (which is directly proportional to CO2 emissions) results in increased exposure. Fuel burn and emissions are estimated as a function of thrust setting for five common gas turbine engines at 34 US airports. Regional air quality impacts, which are dominated by ozone and secondary PM2.5, are computed as a function of airport location and time using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model. Tradeoffs between CO2 emissions and population exposure to PM2.5 and O3 occur between 2-18% and 5-60% of the year, respectively, depending on airport location, engine type, and thrust setting. The total duration of tradeoff conditions is 5-12 times longer at maximum thrust operations (typical for takeoff) relative to 4% thrust operations (typical for taxiing). Per kilogram of additional fuel burn at constant thrust setting during tradeoff conditions, reductions in population exposure to PM2.5 and O3 are 6-13% and 32-1060% of the annual average (positive) population exposure per kilogram fuel burn, where the ranges encompass the medians over the 34 airports. For fuel burn increases due to thrust increases (i.e. for constant operating time), reductions in both PM2.5 and O3 exposure are 1.5-6.4 times larger in magnitude than those due to increasing fuel burn at constant thrust (i.e. increasing operating time). Airports with relatively high population exposure reduction potentials - which occur due to a combination of high duration and magnitude of tradeoff conditions - are identified. Our results are the first to quantify the extent of the tradeoff between CO2 emissions and air quality impacts at airports. This raises the possibility of reducing the air quality impacts of airports beyond minimizing fuel burn and/or optimizing for minimum net environmental impact.@en