The use of CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising alternative for reducing the cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS). In this study the techno-economic potential of integrated CCS-EOR projects for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Colombian oil industry is estimated. For this purpose, a source-sink matching process is carried out, including CO2 capture potentials in sources from the petroleum, cement, power generation, and bioethanol industries, as well as from the CO2 storage in suitable oil fields for EOR. The results indicate that a total of 142 million tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) could be stored, while delivering 465 MMbbl through five CCS-EOR projects in four clusters identified around the country. The levelised cost for capture ranged between 12–209 €/tCO2, followed by the cost of CO2 during EOR operations with a variation of 24–59 €/tCO2, and finally the CO2 transport, from 1 €/tCO2 to 23 €/tCO2. The CO2 mitigation potential of CCS-EOR represents 25 % of the forecasted oil industry emissions in Colombia for the period of 2025–2040. As compared to the intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) target set by the Colombian government, CCS-EOR projects could contribute 7 % of the total accumulated emissions reductions by 2040.@en

CCS is considered a primary strategy to curb CO2 emissions. In many models, CCS is an essential technology to meet the 2◦C target [1]. Drastically reducing GHG emissions in the oil and gas industry will be needed to reach the 2◦C target as this industry is one of the five most energy and GHG intensive sectors [2]. The implementation of CCS technologies has been widely studied for the refining stage of the oil value chain. According to Berghout et al. [3], between 80 to 90% of GHG emissions in the refining industry could be reduced using CCS. However, the cost involved for its implementation, make it an unattractive pathway. CO2-EOR is currently a promising alternative to reduce CCS costs [4], and would be able to produce an oil with low-associated emissions during its recovery. This paper aims to estimate the techno-economic potential of CO2-EOR for reducing GHG emissions in the Colombian oil industry. For this purpose, the supply and demand of CO2 is studied by including the CO2 capture potential of the oil industry, cement, power generation and bioethanol, as well as the storage potential of CO2 through the oil recovery miscible process. The state-owned oil company Ecopetrol S.A. was taken as a case study, which represent the oil value chain in Colombia, with about 70% of crude oil produced and 100% of oil transported and refined in the country. A total of 193 Mt CO2 between 2025 and 2040 could be stored through CO2-EOR. As the projected emissions of the oil and gas industry in Colombia from 2010 to 2040 are estimated at 570 Mt CO2 [11], this is equivalent to a potential 34% reduction in CO2 emissions. This mitigation represents approximately 20% of the total reduction under the INDC target for the period 2025 to 2030.@en

Estimating the oil recovery potential using CO2 (CO2-EOR) at a national level is resource-intensive at a scale that is not usually available. The aim of this study is two-fold: first, the potential for CO2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in Colombia is evaluated; and, second, the results from two different calculation methods (stochastic and deterministic) are compared when there is lack of information for a quick screening of suitable oilfields. The deterministic approach is based on expert insight and data found in the literature; while, the stochastic uses statistical data from two different databases (commercial and simulation-based results) to run a Monte Carlo simulation. Potential estimates based on typical values from the literature (deterministic) results in 277 MMbbl (million barrels) of oil and 36 Mt (million tonnes) of CO2. In contrast, a probabilistic-based method using a wide simulation database (stochastic) provides higher values of 690 MMbbl of oil and 203 Mt of CO2. Results using simulation-based and commercial project data also show significant differences. The volume of CO2 injected, which affects the recovery factor, is usually 100% hydrocarbon pore volume (HCPV) in simulation, while commercial projects have nowadays regularly increased from 30% to exceed the 100% threshold. A combination of these approaches avoids a resource-intensive estimation process and effectively provides a more realistic picture of the feasibility of applying CO2-EOR technologies.@en