VD
Valeria Di Fant
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1
Journal article
(2026)
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Julius Schlumberger, David Gold, Valeria Di Fant, Gundula Winter, Mehmet Ümit Taner, Jan Kwakkel
Decision-making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) offers approaches to support robust, adaptive strategies for complex decision-making. However, practical uptake of DMDU remains limited, partly due to fragmented access to resources and a lack of an inventory of available tools. This study introduces a comprehensive catalogue of tools and resources. Through a structured survey and expert elicitation, we identify 28 resources and 16 tools that support DMDU research and practice and classify them using an established DMDU taxonomy. Our analysis reveals a focus on introductory guidance regarding theory and methods of DMDU application, with some bias toward water-related applications. Technical, method-specific resources on how to implement existing frameworks remain limited. Our results identify tools supporting all core DMDU components, though they highlight persistent scalability challenges. The resulting online catalogue provides a foundation for expanding the use of DMDU in practice and is intended as a living, community-driven platform.
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Decision-making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) offers approaches to support robust, adaptive strategies for complex decision-making. However, practical uptake of DMDU remains limited, partly due to fragmented access to resources and a lack of an inventory of available tools. This study introduces a comprehensive catalogue of tools and resources. Through a structured survey and expert elicitation, we identify 28 resources and 16 tools that support DMDU research and practice and classify them using an established DMDU taxonomy. Our analysis reveals a focus on introductory guidance regarding theory and methods of DMDU application, with some bias toward water-related applications. Technical, method-specific resources on how to implement existing frameworks remain limited. Our results identify tools supporting all core DMDU components, though they highlight persistent scalability challenges. The resulting online catalogue provides a foundation for expanding the use of DMDU in practice and is intended as a living, community-driven platform.
Adaptive pathways planning is an approach that maps the solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications to climate change adaptation in the ’10s several studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits, and complexity. What have we learned from a decade of adaptive pathways studies? This paper elaborates lessons learned on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches for decision making using a set of guiding questions related to the decision context, the methods used, and contributions to decision making. Based on our experience and literature review, we find that: a) adaptive pathways analyses have been applied widely and are moving from theory to practice; b) an adaptive pathways analysis can be tailored and typically follows a staged approach; c) methods include narratives, impact models, and stakeholder participation tools; d) the complexity of adaptive pathways as a result of multiple actors, values, hazards, and actions at various scales for different purposes is a challenge, and this is increasingly considered through various extensions and combinations with other approaches. Ways forward to address weaknesses and current challenges include: accounting for coevolution between multiple actors across different scales (e.g., through interactive and multilevel pathways) and combining an adaptive pathways analysis with visioning and backcasting approaches for transformative adaptation and operationalizing climate resilient development pathways. To enable further applications in practice, it is important that experiences are shared and governance issues (e.g. long-term planning and funding) addressed.
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Adaptive pathways planning is an approach that maps the solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications to climate change adaptation in the ’10s several studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits, and complexity. What have we learned from a decade of adaptive pathways studies? This paper elaborates lessons learned on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches for decision making using a set of guiding questions related to the decision context, the methods used, and contributions to decision making. Based on our experience and literature review, we find that: a) adaptive pathways analyses have been applied widely and are moving from theory to practice; b) an adaptive pathways analysis can be tailored and typically follows a staged approach; c) methods include narratives, impact models, and stakeholder participation tools; d) the complexity of adaptive pathways as a result of multiple actors, values, hazards, and actions at various scales for different purposes is a challenge, and this is increasingly considered through various extensions and combinations with other approaches. Ways forward to address weaknesses and current challenges include: accounting for coevolution between multiple actors across different scales (e.g., through interactive and multilevel pathways) and combining an adaptive pathways analysis with visioning and backcasting approaches for transformative adaptation and operationalizing climate resilient development pathways. To enable further applications in practice, it is important that experiences are shared and governance issues (e.g. long-term planning and funding) addressed.