Study region: Senegal river (SRB), Niger river (NRB), and Lake Chad basins (LCB). Study focus: We investigated the impacts of land use/land cover change (LULC) and climate variability on the water balance components from 1990 to 2020. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with remote sensing retrievals of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and surface soil moisture (SSM). To separate the impacts of the two aforementioned factors, two numerical experiments were designed: (i) climate variability effects by applying frozen LULC while changing the climate; (ii) LULC change impacts by applying frozen climate while changing LULC. New hydrological insights for the region: Overall, at the basin level, the results indicated that climate variability had the dominant role in increasing groundwater recharge, surface runoff, groundwater return flow and lateral flow in LCB and SRB. These increases triggered the recovery of lake area and higher water table in LCB and increased in SRB streamflow, while water scarcity increased in NRB. In contrast, the separate effect of LULC change, specifically natural vegetation expansion, increased actual ET and decreased the surface runoff, which could be a reason for lake area depletion in LCB and decreasing SRB and NRB streamflow. At the sub-basin level, LULC change, i.e. a gain in cropland and urban areas at the expense of forests in some sub-basins in NRB, led to a local increase in surface runoff. This implies a better redistribution of water in downstream and compensates the deficit in surface runoff caused by natural vegetation expansion in some other catchments. These changes, simultaneously with high intensity and long-duration precipitation, may increase the likelihood of inundation in some small catchments in the Niger river basin. These outcomes give useful hydrological insights into water and land management by emphasizing the crucial role of water recycling.

The potential drivers of vegetation changes in the Sudano-Sahelian region of Africa remain poorly understood due to complex interactions between climatic and anthropogenic processes. In this study, we analyzed the vegetation greenness trends in relation to rainfall variability that we considered the essence of climatic effects on vegetation in a well-known water-limited environment by using time series of satellite data in the Sudano-Sahelian region during 2001–2020. We quantified in more detail the relative contributions of rainfall variability (climatic factor), land use/land cover (LULC) change, and fire occurrence change (non-climatic factors) to vegetation greenness trends in selected sub-regions. The results showed that vegetation greening was widespread (26.9% of the total study area), while vegetation browning was more clustered in central West Africa (5% of the total study area). About half of the vegetation greening area can be explained by long-term rainfall variability during 2001–2020, but most of the area characterized by a browning trend was unrelated to rainfall variability. An analysis of the relative importance showed that LULC changes had significant local effects on vegetation greenness and that these changes were characterized by a strong spatial heterogeneity in specific sub-regions. Gains in cropland and natural vegetation related to positive land management were probably the dominant drivers of greening in Senegal and Ethiopia. Also, the combined impacts of rainfall variability and LULC changes contributed to greening trends in the arid zone, particularly in Mali and Sudan. In contrast, vegetation browning in central West Africa appeared to be driven by cropland gain and natural vegetation loss associated with extensive agricultural production activities. Furthermore, we found that repeated fires for agricultural expansion in central West Africa intensified vegetation browning. These results advanced our understanding of vegetation dynamics in response to climatic and non-climatic factors in Sudano-Sahelian drylands characterized by increasing pressures on land resources.

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change is a major global concern and a topic of scientific debate. In West Africa, the key trend among the changes of the past few years is the loss of natural vegetation related to changes in different LULC categories, e.g., water bodies, wetland, and bare soil. However, not all detected changes in these LULC categories are relevant for LULC change management intervention in a resource-constrained continent, as a massive change in the dominant LULC types may be due to errors in the LULC maps. Previous LULC change analysis detected large discrepancies in the existing LULC maps in Africa. Here, we applied an open and synergistic framework to update and improve the existing LULC maps for West Africa at five-year intervals from 1990 to 2020—updating them to a finer spatial resolution of 30 m. Next, we detected spatial–temporal patterns in past and present LULC changes with the intensity analysis framework, focusing on the following periods: 1990–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2020. A faster annual rate of overall transition was detected in 1990–2000 and 2010–2020 than in 2000–2010. We observed consistent increases in shrubland and grassland in all of the periods, which confirms the observed re-greening of rangeland in West Africa. By contrast, forestland areas experienced consistent decreases over the entire period, indicating deforestation and degradation. We observed a net loss for cropland in the drought period and net gains in the subsequent periods. The settlement category also gained actively in all periods. Net losses of wetland and bare land categories were also observed in all of the periods. We observed net gains in water bodies in the 1990–2000 period and net losses in the 2010–2020 period. We highlighted the active forestland losses as systematic and issued a clarion call for an intervention. The simultaneous active gross loss and gain intensity of cropland raises food security concerns and should act as an early warning sign to policy makers that the food security of marginal geographic locations is under threat, despite the massive expansion of cropland observed in this study area. Instead of focusing on the dynamics of all the LULC categories that may be irrelevant, the intensity analysis framework was vital in identifying the settlement category relevant for LULC change management intervention in West Africa, as well as a cost-effective LULC change management approach.

Model calibration and validation are challenging in poorly gauged basins. We developed and applied a new approach to calibrate hydrological models using distributed geospatial remote sensing data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using only twelve months of remote sensing data on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) geospatially distributed in the 37 sub-basins of the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. Global sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify influential model parameters by applying the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm–version 2 (SUFI-2), included in the SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP). This procedure is designed to deal with spatially variable parameters and estimates either multiplicative or additive corrections applicable to the entire model domain, which limits the number of unknowns while preserving spatial variability. The sensitivity analysis led us to identify fifteen influential parameters, which were selected for calibration. The optimized parameters gave the best model performance on the basis of the high Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and determination coefficient (R²). Four sets of remote sensing ETa data products were applied in model calibration, i.e., ETMonitor, GLEAM, SSEBop, and WaPOR. Overall, the new approach of using remote sensing ETa for a limited period of time was robust and gave a very good performance, with R² > 0.9, NSE > 0.8, and KGE > 0.75 applying to the SWAT ETa vs. the ETMonitor ETa and GLEAM ETa. The ETMonitor ETa was finally adopted for further model applications. The calibrated SWAT model was then validated during 2010–2015 against remote sensing data on total water storage change (TWSC) with acceptable performance, i.e., R² = 0.57 and NSE = 0.55, and remote sensing soil moisture data with R² and NSE greater than 0.85.

Past Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transitions analysis at the sub-continental scale of West Africa revealed spatial reallocation, i.e., simultaneous losses and gains of the LULC categories at different locations. We applied the component analysis approach to separate the total change into three major components, i.e., quantity (net change), exchange and shift (allocation change) as a way to analyse such spatial reallocation and identify the paired categories that accounted for the largest exchange and shift through time. Quantity change is the absolute value of the category's gross gains minus the category's gross losses. An exchange occurs when for example, a natural vegetation patch evolves to cropland at a location concurrently with an equal extent of cropland evolving into natural vegetation at a different location. A shift occurs when the LULC categories involved in the exchange are more than two. The amount of exchange and shift and locations that these exchanges occurred are very useful information for land policies appraisal and the long term contested re-greening of Africa as it may signal simultaneous regrowth and degradation of natural vegetation at different locations in the same landscape and also possible misclassification errors. The results revealed large exchanges in the landscape of West Africa between 1975 and 2000 for arid and humid eco-regions in West Africa. Overall, the exchange and shift components between wetland, water bodies and some other LULC categories such as forestland, other vegetation and cropland were the highest. The exchange between natural vegetation and cropland was considerable, which confirms regrowth despite the massive degradation revealed by the previous studies. Here, the large exchange in 1975–2000 highlighted large spatial reallocation of the LULC categories. The highest net change was experienced in the period between 2000 and 2013 at all spatial aggregations. Settlement and cropland experienced the highest positive net change whilst forestland and other vegetation experienced the highest negative net change. Shift was absent in the category of settlements indicating persistence over time. This analysis provided useful information on the contested re-greening of West Africa.

The occurrence of natural vegetation at a given time is determined by interplay of multiple drivers. The effects of several drivers, e.g., geomorphology, topography, climate variability, accessibility, demographic indicators, and changes in human activities on the occurrence of natural vegetation in the severe drought periods and, prior to the year 2000, have been analyzed in West Africa. A binary logistic regression (BLR) model was developed to better understand whether the variability in these drivers over the past years was statistically significant in explaining the occurrence of natural vegetation in the year 2000. Our results showed that multiple drivers explained the occurrence of natural vegetation in West Africa at p < 0.05. The dominant drivers, however, were site-specific. Overall, human influence indicators were the dominant drivers in explaining the occurrence of natural vegetation in the selected hotspots. Human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP), which is an indicator of human socio-economic activities, explained the decreased likelihood of natural vegetation occurrence at all the study sites. However, the impacts of the remaining significant drivers on natural vegetation were either positive (increased the probability of occurrence) or negative (decreased the probability of occurrence), depending on the unique environmental and socio-economic conditions of the areas under consideration. The study highlights the significant role human activities play in altering the normal functioning of the ecosystem by means of a statistical model. The research contributes to a better understanding of the relationships and the interactions between multiple drivers and the response of natural vegetation in West Africa. The results are likely to be useful for planning climate change adaptation and sustainable development programs in West Africa.

Post‐classification change detection was applied to examine the nature of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transitions in West Africa in three time intervals (1975–2000, 2000–2013, and 1975– 2013). Detailed analyses at hotspots coupled with comparison of LULC transitions in the humid and arid regions were undertaken. Climate and anthropic drivers of environmental change were disentangled by the LULC transitions analyses. The results indicated that human‐managed LULC types have replaced the natural LULC types. The total vegetation cover declined by −1.6%. Massive net gains in croplands (107.8%) and settlements (140%) at the expense of natural vegetation were detected in the entire period (1975–2013). Settlements expanded in parallel with cropland, which suggests the effort to increase food production to support the increasing population. Expansion of artificial water bodies were detected in the humid regions during the period of 1975–2000. Nonetheless, shrinking of water bodies due to encroachment by wetlands and other vegetation was observed in the arid regions, coupled with net loss in the whole of West Africa. The results indicate deforestation and degradation of natural vegetation and water resources in West Africa. Underlying anthropic drivers and a combination of anthropic and climate drivers were detected. LULC transitions in West Africa are location specific and have both positive and negative implications on the environment. The transitions indicate how processes at the local level, driven by human activities, lead to changes at the continental level and may contribute to global environmental change.