“Heating and cooling remain neglected areas of energy policy and technology, but their decarbonisation is a fundamental element of a low-carbon economy.” (IEA, 2012). In The Netherlands the total heat demand needs to be reduced and the heat provision needs to become more sustainable (Kamp, 2015). By 2021, municipalities therefore need to have formulate plans on how they will realize the phase-out of natural gas in all districts in which the phase-out will take-place before 2030. In South Holland, district heating is considered a cost-effective alternative for the current gas based system. However, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and the Province of South Holland (PZH) think differently about how district heating should be implemented and it is currently unclear what these differences exactly are and how they influence municipal policy for the phase-out of natural gas. In this thesis, we have therefore researched what the relevant differences between the two regional transition approaches are with regard to the implementation of district heating at a municipal level for realizing cost-efficient CO2 abatement.
In consultation with the PBL and the PZH, we have developed four scenarios for the development of district heating. To analyse these scenarios, we have adapted an existing model of CE Delft, which can calculate the investment costs and fixed costs of district heating infrastructure. Furthermore, we have developed a dispatch model that can calculate the performance of a district heating system in terms of CO2 abatement and marginal costs of heat production.
Based on this comparison of the approaches, a trade-off appears between cost-effective CO2 abatement, and maximizing the overall reduction of CO2 emissions. In which the scenarios of the PZH in general result in higher levels of CO2 abatement and the scenario of the PBL is more cost-effective. Additionally, in the light of the full phase-out of natural gas the approach of the PZH appears to suffer from higher initial investment risks but also provides better opportunities to realize large-scale district heating. However, the research has also pointed out that there are many uncertainties regarding the development of demand and supply that can average out the relatively small differences between the scenarios.
One of these uncertainties is the willingness and ability of residents to participate in district heating. The decision-mandate lies with the consumer; however, current forecasts and policy processes are not sensitive to this mandate. Therefore, we have researched if Q-methodology can support municipalities in developing communication-and-decision making processes that fit with the need of heat consumers in this transition. The case study and focus group have indicated that Q-methodology can provide relevant and unique insights. However, to truly test the method it is necessary to run a larger case study in which the resulting perspectives are used to design a policy process and where this process is re-evaluated by the participants of the study.