In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.

Accurate parameter estimation for the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) benefits from observations with long time-series. However, increasing the number of measurements leads to a large computation demand and increased memory requirements, especially for the ensemble-based methods that assimilate the measurements at one batch. In this study, a memory-efficient parameter estimation scheme using model order reduction in time patterns is developed for a high-resolution global tide model. We propose using projection onto empirical time-patterns to reduce the model output time-series to a much smaller linear subspace. Then, to further improve the estimation accuracy, we introduce an outer-loop, similar to Incremental 4D-VAR, to evaluate model-increments at a lower resolution and subsequently reduce the computational cost. The inner-loop optimizes parameters using the lower-resolution model and an iterative least-squares estimation algorithm called DUD. The outer-loop updates the initial output from the high-resolution model with updated parameters from the converged inner-loop and then restarts the inner-loop. We performed experiments to adjust the bathymetry with observations from the FES2014 dataset. Results show that the time patterns of the tide series can be successfully projected to a lower dimensional subspace, and memory requirements are reduced by a factor of 22 for our experiments. The estimation is converged after three outer iterations in our experiment, and tide representation is significantly improved, achieving a 34.5% reduction of error. The model's improvement is not only shown for the calibration dataset, but also for several validation datasets consisting of one year of time-series from FES2014 and UHSLC tide gauges.

In this study, a computation-efficient parameter estimation scheme for high-resolution global tide models is developed. The method is applied to Global Tide and Surge Model with an unstructured grid with a resolution of about 2.5 km in the coastal area and about 4.9 million cells. The estimation algorithm uses an iterative least squares method, known as DUD. We use time-series derived from the FES2014 tidal database in deep water as observations to estimate corrections to the bathymetry. Although the model and estimation algorithm run in parallel, directly applying of DUD would not be affordable computationally. To reduce the computational demand, a coarse-to-fine strategy is proposed by using output from a coarser model to replace the fine model. There are two approaches; One is completely replacing the fine model with a coarser model during calibration (Coarse Calibration) and the second is Coarse Incremental Calibration, that replaces the output increments between the initial model and model with modified parameters by coarser grid model simulations. To further reduce the computation time, the parameter dimension is reduced from O(10⁶) to O(10²) based on sensitivity analysis, which greatly reduces the required number of model simulations and storage. In combination, these methods form an efficient optimization strategy. Experiments show that the accuracy of the tidal representation can be improved significantly at affordable cost. Validation for other time-periods and using coastal tide-gauges shows that the accuracy is improved significantly. However, the calibration period of two weeks is short and leads to some over-fitting of the model.

The world’s coastal areas are increasingly at risk of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). We present a novel global dataset of extreme sea levels, the Coastal Dataset for the Evaluation of Climate Impact (CoDEC), which can be used to accurately map the impact of climate change on coastal regions around the world. The third generation Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM), with a coastal resolution of 2.5 km (1.25 km in Europe), was used to simulate extreme sea levels for the ERA5 climate reanalysis from 1979 to 2017, as well as for future climate scenarios from 2040 to 2100. The validation against observed sea levels demonstrated a good performance, and the annual maxima had a mean bias (MB) of -0.04 m, which is 50% lower than the MB of the previous GTSR dataset. By the end of the century (2071–2100), it is projected that the 1 in 10-year water levels will have increased 0.34 m on average for RCP4.5, while some locations may experience increases of up to 0.5 m. The change in return levels is largely driven by SLR, although at some locations changes in storms surges and interaction with tides amplify the impact of SLR with changes up to 0.2 m. By presenting an application of the CoDEC dataset to the city of Copenhagen, we demonstrate how climate impact indicators derived from simulation can contribute to an understanding of climate impact on a local scale. Moreover, the CoDEC output locations are designed to be used as boundary conditions for regional models, and we envisage that they will be used for dynamic downscaling.

Storm surge that results from tropical and extra-tropical cyclones is driven primarily by wind strength and inverse barometer effects which have global scale dynamics, but also local scale effects. In fact, storm surge is influenced by a multitude of local factors, including; shoreline geometry; the nearshore slope and bathymetry; cyclone wind obliquity to the coast and forward-moving speed; harmonic coupling with the astronomic tide; and cyclone intensity. The complexity of storm-surge dynamics means that both global-scale and local-scale processes need to both be resolved. In order to resolve the global scale processes, Deltares has developed the global numerical hydrodynamic Delft3D FM model “Global Tide and Storm surge Model” (GTSM). The Global Storm Surge Information System (GLOSSIS) runs the GTSM operationally, producing four forecast a day. To better understand the sensitivities of global to local scale storm surge modelling, the GTSM model has been applied in real-world operational forecasting systems (through GLOSSIS), as well as in a model sensitivity analysis study. Two operational systems are described in this paper: forecasting surface currents to gain an edge in the global sailing contest “Volvo Ocean Race” and storm surge and wave forecasting in TC prone Mozambique. The model sensitivity analysis described in this paper has been performed for a case study in North Queensland. In this study the global GTSM model provides forcing (boundary water level and atmospheric (velocity and pressure)) for a local Delft3D FM model operated by Risk Frontiers. This local model benefits from the availability of high-resolution bathymetry and coastal water level observations. The model sensitivity analysis looked at the impact of bathymetry and grid resolution. Separately, the GTSM v3 hydrodynamic model has been verified on a global scale through a validation study for a global observation dataset for both tide and surge, and compared to other state-of-the-art tidal models, as well as in a dedicated validation study for Europe. The validation shows good agreement of the model against both tide and surge observations, demonstrating the capability of the model to accurately represent water-levels at the coastal zone. The accuracy of the forecasting model is comparable to existing data-assimilated global tide models and outperforms modern non-assimilated global tide models. The surge results show very high correlation and low standard error (STDE) values for both datasets, and tropical-cyclone induced surges are also shown to be well captured. This paper describes the ongoing improvements of GTSM, as well as two forecasting applications of GLOSSIS in the real world as well as the use of GTSM in a model sensitivity analysis performed for a case study in North Queensland.

We assess the suitability of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) data for the global modeling of tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges. We extract meteorological forcing from the IFS at a 0.225° horizontal resolution for eight historical TCs and simulate the corresponding surges using the global tide and surge model. Maximum surge heights for Hurricanes Irma and Sandy are compared with tide gauge observations, with R ² -values of 0.86 and 0.74 respectively. Maximum surge heights for the other TCs are in line with literature. Our case studies demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 0.225° is sufficient for the large-scale modeling of TC surges. By upscaling the meteorological forcing to coarser resolutions as low as 1.0°, we assess the effects of horizontal resolution on the performance of surge modeling. We demonstrate that coarser resolutions result in lower-modeled surges for all case studies, with modeled surges up to 1 m lower for Irma and Nargis. The largest differences in surges between the different resolutions are found for the TCs with the highest surges. We discuss possible drivers of maximum surge heights (TC size, intensity, and coastal slope and complexity), and find that coastal complexity and slope play a more profound role than TC size and intensity alone. The highest surges are found in areas with complex coastlines (fractal dimension > 1.10) and, in general, shallow coastlines. Our findings show that using high-resolution meteorological forcing is particularly beneficial for areas prone to high TC surges, since these surges are reduced the most in coarse-resolution datasets.

The impact of the self-attraction and loading effect (SAL) in a regional 2D barotropic tidal model has been assessed, a term with acknowledged and well-understood importance for global models but omitted for boundary-forced, regional models, for which the implementation of SAL is non-trivial due to its non-local nature. In order to understand the impact of the lack of SAL effects in a regional scale, we have forced a regional model of the Northwest European Continental Shelf and the North Sea (continental shelf model (CSM)) with the SAL potential field derived from a global model (GTSM), in the form of a pressure field. Impacts have been studied in an uncalibrated setup and with only tidal forcing activated, in order to isolate effects. Additionally, the usually adopted simple SAL parameterization, in which the SAL contribution to the total tide is parameterized as a percentage of the barotropic pressure gradient (typically chosen 10%), is also implemented and compared to the results obtained with a full SAL computation. A significant impact on M2 representation is observed in the English Channel, Irish Sea and the west (UK East coast) and south (Belgian and Dutch Coast) of the North Sea, with an impact of up to 20 cm in vector difference terms. The impact of SAL translates into a consistent M2 amplitude and propagation speeds reduction throughout the domain. Results using the beta approximation, with an optimal domain-wide constant value of 1.5%, show a somewhat comparable impact in phase but opposite direction of the impact in amplitude, increasing amplitudes everywhere. In relative terms, both implementations lead to a reduction of the tidal representation error in comparison with the reference run without SAL, with the full SAL approach showing further impacted, improved results. Although the overprediction of tidal amplitudes and propagation speeds in the reference run might have additional sources like the lack of additional dissipative processes and non-considered bottom friction settings, results show an overall significant impact, most remarkable in tidal phases. After showing evidence of the SAL impact in regional models, the question of how to include this physical process in them in an efficient way arises, since SAL is a non-local effect and depends on the instantaneous water levels over the whole ocean, which is non-trivial to implement.