Purpose - This development project is focused on the combination of project scheduling and risk mitigation for large infrastructure projects. The aim of this project is to develop a model that can automatically restructure the network schedule to enable that delay is mitigated as much as possible while the effects on multiple project criteria are minimized. This model will be developed as an alternative perspective on the original Mitigation Controller.
Approach - Simulation, optimization and multi criteria evaluation are combined to reflect reality and the human goal oriented behavior during the decision making process in large infrastructure projects. Including optimization in a simulation process ensures that uncertainties and risks are reflected in optimization outcomes. Embedding a multi criteria evaluation in the optimization establishes the reflection of multiple project criteria in the model. One of the largest ongoing infrastructure projects in the Netherlands is used as a case study to validate the model and establish its practical relevance.
Findings - The verification and validation on the applied case study showed the theoretical and practical feasibility of the developed model. The probability to achieve a certain project target duration increases significantly for the highest aggregated preference of the applied mitigation strategy.
Originality - The proposed development proposes an alternative perspective on the Mitigation Controller as it examines the optimal network logic rather than crashing activities to minimize project delays. Not only cost, but also multiple other project criteria can be taken into account in the optimization, such as traffic hindrance or stakeholder effects. On this wise Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is not only combined with optimization, but also with Multi Criteria Analysis. And lastly, a Genetic Algorithm is applied to minimize the project delay for the least effects on project criteria in each run in the MCS.
Future work - To improve the body of scientific knowledge on this topic, further research on how to combine the model on network restructuring and the original Mitigation Controller on activity crashing into one overall automated computer tool would be of interest. This tool can then propose the best mitigation strategies both on the structure of the network as on the lead times of activities to mitigate project delays, which would be a valuable addition for project control in the construction industry.