Emergency response is a procedural safety barrier of paramount importance for the mitigation of fire scenarios and the prevention of escalation. However, in Natech scenarios, emergency response may be affected by the natural event impacting the site. Indeed, when contrasting Natech accidents, emergency responders have to face both the natural event and the cascading technological scenario. Despite the criticality of the issue, limited attention was devoted to date to the analysis of emergency response in cascading sequences triggered by natural events. The present study provides a novel and technically sound methodology to assess the performance of emergency response and the required intervention time in Natech scenarios. An expert survey combined with a Bayesian Network model was used to assess the performance of the emergency response. The routing and setup phases were identified as those mostly affected by natural events. Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain baseline data and specific probability distributions for the time required to carry out the emergency response considering the factors that may hinder the response during natural events. In Natech accidents, the time for effective mitigation resulted higher of at least a factor 2 with respect to that expected in the case of conventional accidents. The methodology developed may be used to support the improvement of the emergency management of Natech scenarios, allowing for a detailed definition of site-specific emergency response plans. Moreover, the results may be used to provide a more accurate assessment of the fire-driven escalation probability in Natech events.

Accidents triggered by natural events are becoming an increasing issue for policy-makers and industrial practitioners in the last decades. These events are called Natech (natural hazards triggering technological disasters), and their study is critical due to an increase in both the frequency and the magnitude of the consequences. Considering the possible failure of safety systems and the several equipment items potentially involved in the accidents due to the occurrence of multiple simultaneous failures and cascading events, the emergency response results to be a crucial aspect in the risk assessment and management of Natech events. Despite this, the emergency response can also be affected by the occurrence of natural events. The purpose of the present work is to understand the effects of natural events on emergency response. To reach this goal, some relevant past accidents are studied. The result of the analysis allows highlighting the effects of the natural events on the emergency response. Moreover, lessons learned on the critical elements of the emergency response are derived when considering Natech accidents and related cascading events.