Estuaries often show regions in which Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) accumulates. The location and magnitude corresponding to such accumulation result from a complex interplay between processes such as river flushing, salinity, nutrients, grazing on phytoplankton, and the light climate in the water column. An example is the multi-annual evolution of the estuary-scale Chl-a distribution in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium/Netherlands) in spring. From 2004–2007, we observed a limited spring bloom in the brackish region (km 60–90 from the mouth, salinity ∼ 1–10 ppt). This bloom intensified in 2008–2014 and disappeared after 2015. This multi-annual evolution of Chl-a has been hypothesized to be linked to simultaneous multi-annual trends in the suspended particulate matter (SPM) distribution in summer and winter between 1995–2015 and the improvement of the water quality (e.g., reduction of ammonium), which affects grazing on phytoplankton by zooplankton. However, this hypothesis has not been systematically investigated. In this contribution, we apply a modeling approach in which observations are the core. We first analyze multi-annual in situ observations covering the full estuary. These observations include the SPM concentration, zooplankton abundance, and other variables affecting the Chl-a concentration. They show a multi-annual estuary-scale evolution not only in the SPM distribution but also in zooplankton abundance, freshwater discharge, and phytoplankon photosynthetic characteristics. Next, we apply a model approach that consists of an extensive sensitivity study and four model scenarios that are supported by these observations to constrain the processes and corresponding parameter variability that may have caused the observed change in Chl-a. Our results suggest that a change in SPM alone cannot explain the Chl-a observations. Instead, a multi-annual change in mortality rate, which we can attribute to both grazing by zooplankton and phytoplankton community (i.e., mortality dependence on salinity), may explain the multi-annual estuary-scale evolution of Chl-a in spring. Different model parameter choices may thus lead to similar model results (equifinality). Our results highlight that insight into the zooplankton dynamics and phytoplankton community characteristics is essential to understand the phytoplankton (cf. Chl-a) dynamics in the Scheldt estuary and that additional data regarding mortality and grazing rates is required to further constrain the model parameters.

Nature-based strategies, such as wave attenuation by tidal marshes, are increasingly proposed as a complement to mitigate the risks of failure of engineered flood defense structures such as levees. However, recent analysis of historic coastal storms revealed smaller dike breach dimensions if there were natural, high tidal marshes in front of the dikes. Since tidal marshes naturally only experience weak flow velocities (~0-0.3 ms^-1 during normal spring tides), we lack direct observations on the stability of tidal marsh sediments and vegetation under extreme flow velocities (order of several ms^-1) as may occur when a dike behind a marsh breaches. As a first approximation, the stability of a tidal marsh sediment bed and winter-state vegetation under high flow velocities were tested in a flume. Marsh monoliths were excavated from Phragmites australis marshes in front of a dike along the Scheldt estuary (Dutch-Belgian border area) and installed in a 10 m long flume test section. Both sediment bed and vegetation responses were quantified over 6 experimental runs under high flow velocities up to 1.75 ms^-1 and water depth up to 0.35 m for 2 hours. These tests showed that even after a cumulative 12 hours exposure to high flow velocities, erosion was limited to as little as a few millimeters. Manual removal of the aboveground vegetation did not enhance the erosion either. Present findings may be related to the strongly consolidated, clay- and silt-rich sediment and P. australis root system in this experiment. During the flow exposure, the P. australis stems were strongly bent by the water flow, but the majority of all shoots recovered rapidly when the flow had stopped. Although present results may not be blindly extrapolated to all other marsh types, they do provide a strong first indication that marshes can remain stable under high flow conditions, and confirm the potential of well-developed tidal marshes as a valuable extra natural barrier reducing flood discharges towards the hinterland, following a dike breach. These outcomes promote the consideration to implement tidal marshes as part of the overall flood defense and to rethink dike strengthening in the future.

Many estuaries exhibit seasonality in the estuary-scale distribution of suspended particulate matter (SPM). This SPM distribution depends on various factors, including freshwater discharge, salinity intrusion, erodibility, and the ability of cohesive SPM to flocculate into larger aggregates. Various authors indicate that biotic factors, such as the presence of algae and their excretion of sticky transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), affect the flocculation and erosion processes. Consequently, seasonality in these biotic factors may play a role in the observed seasonality in SPM. Whereas the impact of abiotic factors on seasonality in SPM is well studied, the relative contribution of biotically induced seasonality is largely unknown. In this study, we employ two approaches to assess the aggregated importance of biotically induced seasonality in flocculation and erosion on seasonality in SPM in the Scheldt estuary. In the first approach, we focus on seasonality of in situ observations in the Scheldt estuary of turbidity, floc size, Chlorophyll-a, and TEP, showing that the abiotic parameters show seasonality, while seasonality in TEP is ambiguous. The second approach concerns a reverse engineering method to calibrate biotically affected parameters of a coupled sediment transport-flocculation model to turbidity observations, allowing us to compare the modeled SPM concentrations to the observations. Driven by seasonality in freshwater discharge, the model captures the observed seasonality in SPM without requiring biotically induced seasonality in flocculation and erosion, which is supported by the absence of seasonality in TEP.

Sediment transport in estuaries and the formation of estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) highly depend on the ability of suspended particulate matter (SPM) to flocculate into larger aggregates. While most literature focuses on the small-scale impact of biological flocculants on the formation of larger aggregates, the influence of the flocculation process on large-scale estuarine SPM profiles is still largely unknown. In this paper, we study the impact of flocculation of SPM on the formation of ETM. For this, a semianalytical width-integrated model called iFlow is utilized and extended by a flocculation model. Starting from a complex one-class flocculation model, we show that flocculation may be described as a linear relation between settling velocity and suspended sediment concentration to capture its leading-order effect on the ETM formation. The model is applied to a winter case in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium, Netherlands) and calibrated to a unique, long-term, two-dimensional set of turbidity (cf. SPM) observations. First, model results with and without the effect of flocculation are compared, showing that the spatial and temporal variations of the settling velocity due to flocculation are essential to reproduce the observed magnitude of the suspended sediment concentrations and its dependence on river discharge. Second, flocculation results in tidally averaged land-inward sediment transport. Third, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the freshwater discharge and floc breakup parameter, which shows that flocculation can cause additional estuarine turbidity maxima and can prevent flushing of the ETM for high freshwater inflow.

The natural coastal hydrodynamics and morphology worldwide is altered by human interventions such as embankments, shipping and dredging, which may have consequences for ecosystem functionality. To ensure long-term ecological sustainability, requires capability to predict long-term large-scale ecological effects of altered hydromorphology. As empirical data sets at relevant scales are missing, there is need for integrating ecological modeling with physical modeling. This paper presents a case study showing the long-term, large-scale macrozoobenthic community response to two contrasting human alterations of the hydromorphological habitat: deepening of estuarine channels to enhance navigability (Westerschelde) vs. realization of a storm surge barrier to enhance coastal safety (Oosterschelde). A multidisciplinary integration of empirical data and modeling of estuarine morphology, hydrodynamics and benthic ecology was used to reconstruct the hydrological evolution and resulting long-term (50 years) large-scale ecological trends for both estuaries over the last. Our model indicated that hydrodynamic alterations following the deepening of the Westerschelde had negative implications for benthic life, while the realization of the Oosterschelde storm surge barriers had mixed and habitat-dependent responses, that also include unexpected improvement of environmental quality. Our analysis illustrates long-term trends in the natural community caused by opposing management strategies. The divergent human pressures on the Oosterschelde and Westerschelde are examples of what could happen in a near future for many global coastal ecosystems. The comparative analysis of the two basins is a valuable source of information to understand (and communicate) the future ecological consequences of human coastal development.