Background and purpose — Treatment-related shared decision-making (SDM) in older adults with hip fractures is complex due to the need to balance patient-specific factors such as life goals, frailty, and surgical risks. It includes considerations such as prognosis and decisions concerning whether to operate or not on frail, life-limited patients. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML)-driven prediction models for short-and long-term mortality in a large cohort of patients with hip fractures. Methods — In this national registry-based retrospective cohort study, patients aged ≥ 70 years registered in the nationwide Dutch Hip Fracture Audit from 2018–2023 were included. Predictive variables were selected based on the literature and/or clinical relevance. 6 ML algorithms, including logistic regression, were trained with internal cross-validation and evaluated on discrimination (c-statistic), sensitivity, specificity, calibration, and interpretability. Results — 74,396 patients (median age 84, IQR 78–89; 68% female) were analyzed. Most patients lived at home (69%) and high malnutrition risk was seen in 10%. 18% had dementia. Mortality rates were 9.1% (30-day), 15% (90-day), and 26% (1-year). Logistic regression performed comparably to other algorithms, but was chosen as the preferred algorithm due to its superior interpretability (c-statistic: 30-day 0.82, 90-day 0.81, 1-year 0.80). Conclusion — We developed and validated ML algorithms, including logistic regression, for mortality prediction in older hip fracture patients with adequate performance. This information may inform SDM.

Importance: Hip fractures in older adults are serious injuries that result in disability, higher rates of illness and death, and a substantial strain on health care resources. High-quality evidence to improve hip fracture care regarding the surgical approach of hemiarthroplasty is lacking. Objective: To compare 6-month outcomes of the posterolateral approach (PLA) and direct lateral approach (DLA) for hemiarthroplasty in patients with acute femoral neck fracture. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, randomized clinical trial (RCT) comparing DLA and PLA was performed alongside a natural experiment (NE) at 14 centers in the Netherlands. Patients aged 18 years or older with an acute femoral neck fracture were included, with or without dementia. Secondary surgery of the hip, pathological fractures, or patients with multitrauma were excluded. Recruitment took place between February 2018 and January 2022. Treatment allocation was random or pseudorandom based on geographical location and surgeon preference. Statistical analysis was performed from July 2022 to September 2022. Exposure: Hemiarthroplasty using PLA or DLA. Main Outcome and Measures: The primary outcome was health-related quality of life 6 months after surgery, quantified with the EuroQol Group 5-Dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L). Secondary outcomes included dislocations, fear of falling and falls, activities of daily living, pain, and reoperations. To improve generalizability, a novel technique was used for data fusion of the RCT and NE. Results: A total of 843 patients (542 [64.3%] female; mean [SD] age, 82.2 [7.5] years) participated, with 555 patients in the RCT (283 patients in the DLA group; 272 patients in the PLA group) and 288 patients in the NE (172 patients in the DLA group; 116 patients in the PLA group). In the RCT, mean EQ-5D-5L utility scores at 6 months were 0.50 (95% CI, 0.45-0.55) after DLA and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.44-0.54) after PLA, with 77% completeness. The between-group difference (-0.04 [95% CI, -0.11 to 0.04]) was not statistically significant nor clinically meaningful. Most secondary outcomes were comparable between groups, but PLA was associated with more dislocations than DLA (RCT: 15 of 272 patients [5.5%] in PLA vs 1 of 283 patients [0.4%] in DLA; NE: 6 of 113 patients [5.3%]) in PLA vs 2 of 175 patients [1.1%] in DLA). Data fusion resulted in an effect size of 0.00 (95% CI, -0.04 to 0.05) for the EQ-5D-5L and an odds ratio of 12.31 (95% CI, 2.77 to 54.70) for experiencing a dislocation after PLA. Conclusions and Relevance: This combined RCT and NE found that among patients treated with a cemented hemiarthroplasty after an acute femoral neck fracture, PLA was not associated with a better quality of life than DLA. Rates of dislocation and reoperation were higher after PLA. Randomized and pseudorandomized data yielded similar outcomes, which suggests a strengthening of these findings. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04438226.

Background and purpose — The posterolateral and direct lateral surgical approach are the 2 most common surgical approaches for performing a hemiarthroplasty in patients with a hip fracture. It is unknown which surgical approach is preferable in terms of (cost-)effectiveness and quality of life. Methods and analysis — We designed a multicenter randomized controlled trial (RCT) with an economic evaluation and a natural experiment (NE) alongside. We will include 555 patients ≥ 18 years with an acute femoral neck fracture. The primary outcome is patient-reported health-related quality of life assessed with the EQ-5D-5L. Secondary outcomes include healthcare costs, complications, mortality, and balance (including fear of falling, actual falls, and injuries due to falling). An economic evaluation will be performed for quality adjusted life years (QALYs). We will use variable block randomization stratified for hospital. For continuous outcomes, we will use linear mixed-model analysis. Dichotomous secondary outcome measures will be analyzed using chi-square statistics and logistic regression models. Primary analyses are based on the intention-to-treat principle. Additional as treated analyses will be performed to evaluate the effect of protocol deviations. Study summary — (i) Largest RCT addressing the health-related patient outcome of the main surgical approaches of hemiarthroplasty. (ii) Focus on outcomes that are important for the patient. (iii) Pragmatic and inclusive RCT with few exclusion criteria, e.g., patients with dementia can participate. (iv) Natural experiment alongside to amplify the generalizability. (v) The first study conducting a costutility analysis comparing both surgical approaches.