Robust and reliable models are needed to understand how coastlines will evolve over the coming decades, driven by both natural variability and climate change. This study evaluated how accurately five popular ‘reduced-complexity’ models replicate multi-decadal shoreline change at Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, a sandy embayment in Sydney, Australia. Measured shoreline positions derived from approximately monthly field surveys were used for 20-year calibration and 20-year validation periods. The models performed similarly on average but with large variability between transects. The set-up of several models was modified to compensate for their sensitivity to imperfect input wave data, and further site-specific improvements were identified. Capturing interannual to decadal-scale variability in cross-shore and longshore dynamics at this site was challenging for all five models. Models appeared to aggregate key processes at this timescale into parameter values rather than representing them directly. This suggests time-varying parameters or changes to model structure may be necessary for decadal-scale simulations.

The conservation of coastal ecosystems can provide considerable coastal protection benefits, but this role has not been sufficiently accounted for in coastal planning and engineering. Substantial evidence now exists showing how, and under what conditions, ecosystems can play a valuable function in wave and storm surge attenuation, erosion reduction, and in the longer term maintenance of the coastal profile. Both through their capacity for self repair and recovery, and through the often considerable cobenefits they provide, ecosystems can offer notable advantages over traditional engineering approaches in some settings. They can also be combined in "hybrid" engineering designs. We make 10 recommendations to encourage the utilization of existing knowledge and to improve the incorporation of ecosystems into policy, planning and funding for coastal hazard risk reduction.