Aggradation and fluvial incision controlled by downstream base-level changes at timescales of 10 to 500 kyr is incorporated in classic sequence stratigraphic models. However, upstream climate control on sediment supply and discharge variability causes fluvial incision and aggradation as well. Orbital forcing often regulates climate change at 10 to 500 kyr timescales while tectonic processes such as flexural (un)loading exert a dominant control at timescales longer than 500 kyr. It remains challenging to attribute fluvial incision and aggradation to upstream or downstream processes or disentangle allogenic from autogenic forcing, because time control is mostly limited in fluvial successions. The Palaeocene outcrops of the fluvial Lebo Shale Member in north-eastern Montana (Williston Basin, USA) constitute an exception. This study uses a distinctive tephra layer and two geomagnetic polarity reversals to create a 15 km long chronostratigraphic framework based on the correlation of twelve sections. Three aggradation–incision sequences are identified with durations of approximately 400 kyr, suggesting a relation with long-eccentricity. This age control further reveals that incision occurred during the approach of – or during – a 405 kyr long-eccentricity minimum. A long-term relaxation of the hydrological cycle related to such an orbital phasing potentially exerts an upstream climate control on river incision. Upstream, an expanding vegetation cover is expected because of an increasingly constant moisture supply to source areas. Entrapping by vegetation led to a significantly reduced sediment supply relative to discharge, especially at times of low evapotranspiration. Hence, high discharges resulted in incision. This study assesses the long-eccentricity regulated climate control on fluvial aggradation and incision in a new aggradation–incision sequence model.

Fluvial systems in which peat formation occurs are typified by autogenic processes such as river meandering, crevasse splaying and channel avulsion. Nevertheless, autogenic processes cannot satisfactorily explain the repetitive nature and lateral continuity of many coal seams (compacted peats). The fluvial lower Palaeocene Tullock Member of the Fort Union Formation (Western Interior Williston Basin; Montana, USA) contains lignite rank coal seams that are traceable over distances of several kilometres. This sequence is used to test the hypothesis that peat formation in the fluvial system was controlled by orbitally forced climate change interacting with autogenic processes. Major successions are documented with an average thickness of 6·8 m consisting of ca 6 m thick intervals of channel and overbank deposits overlain by ca 1 m thick coal seam units. These major coal seams locally split and merge. Time-stratigraphic correlation, using a Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary event horizon, several distinctive volcanic ash-fall layers, and the C29r/C29n magnetic polarity reversal, shows consistent lateral recurrence of seven successive major successions along a 10 km wide fence panel perpendicular to east/south-east palaeo-flow. The stratigraphic pattern, complemented by stratigraphic age control and cyclostratigraphic tests, suggests that the major peat-forming phases, resulting in major coal seams, were driven by 100 kyr eccentricity-related climate cycles. Two distinct conceptual models were developed, both based on the hypothesis that the major peat-forming phases ended when enhanced seasonal contrast, at times of minimum precession during increasing eccentricity, intensified mire degradation and flooding. In model 1, orbitally forced climate change controls the timing of peat compaction, leading to enhancement of autogenic channel avulsions. In model 2, orbitally forced climate change controls upstream sediment supply and clastic influx determining the persistence of peat-forming conditions. At the scale of the major successions, model 2 is supported because interfingering channel sandstones do not interrupt lateral continuity of major coal seams.