Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios
Seleshi G. Yalew (TU Delft - Policy Analysis, Wageningen University & Research, Universiteit Utrecht)
Michelle T.H. van Vliet (Wageningen University & Research, Universiteit Utrecht)
David E.H.J. Gernaat (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, Universiteit Utrecht)
Fulco Ludwig (Wageningen University & Research)
Ariel Miara (City University of New York, National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
Chan Park (University of Seoul)
Edward Byers (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Enrica De Cian (Ca' Foscari University Venice, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)
Franziska Piontek (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Gokul Iyer (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
Ioanna Mouratiadou (Universiteit Utrecht)
James Glynn (Cork Constraint Computation Centre)
Mohamad Hejazi (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
Olivier Dessens (University College London)
Pedro Rochedo (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
Robert Pietzcker (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Roberto Schaeffer (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
Shinichiro Fujimori (Kyoto University, National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan)
Shouro Dasgupta (Ca' Foscari University Venice, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)
Silvana Mima (Laboratoire d’économie appliquée de Grenoble)
Silvia R.Santos da Silva (University of Maryland, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
Vaibhav Chaturvedi
Robert Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment)
Detlef P. van Vuuren (Universiteit Utrecht, Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving)
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Abstract
Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.