Robust Policies

An Exploratory Study on the Energy Transition of the Dutch Built Environment Sector

Master thesis (2019)

Authors

M. Hupkens Technology, Policy and Management

Contributors

K. Blok Energy and Industry (supervisor 2)
E. Pruyt Policy Analysis - TPM (supervisor 1)
Adriaan Slob (coach)
Faculty
Technology, Policy and Management
Copyright: © 2019 Mark Hupkens
Built environment Deep uncertainty Energy transition Exploratory Modelling and Analysis
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Published Date

20-08-2019

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Abstract

This study has been performed in cooperation with TNO and set out to analyze the robustness of Dutch energy transition policies under deep uncertainty for the scope of the built environment sector. Open data is gathered which is used in a System Dynamics model to allow exploration under deep uncertainty. The Adaptive Robust Design methodology has been adopted to understand how energy transition policies can be designed to be more robust under deep uncertainty for the period of 2019-2050. Subsidy-based policy variants have been created, inspired by promising policy instruments from current policy documents. Static, dynamic and mission-oriented policy variants have been simulated to show effects on annual CO2-eq emissions, renovated houses and awarded subsidies. Adaptive policies have shown to be promising to curb undesired influence of uncertainties. However, this study showed that subsidy percentage, alone, does not ensure that policy targets for 2050 are reached. Policies should also ensure ample increase in renovation capacity to keep up with rising demand. The limitation of merely subsidy-based policies resulted in less significant differences between the policy variants. To benefit of the adaptive nature of the climate plan, policies should include ample adjustment mechanisms within policies to realize their goals by adapting to changing circumstances.