Site-Response Models for Induced Earthquekes in Groningen
M. Delboo (TU Delft - Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)
D Kurowicka – Mentor (TU Delft - Applied Probability)
Ö. Şahin – Mentor (TU Delft - Applied Probability)
Alexis Derumigny – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Statistics)
Dirk Kraaijpoel – Mentor (TNO)
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Abstract
This thesis investigates the Ground Motion Model (GMM) for the Groningen Seismic Hazard & Risk Analysis. We look at various aspects of the model to see where improvements can be made. We start by looking at model calibration and validation, where we check to what extent the proposed model along with its parameter fits the data. Here we come to the conclusion that both the parameters and the model itself have room for further optimization to reflect the data set more accurately. In addition to this, a new model for correlations of site-response amplifications is presented. The topic of how the dependence of these quantities should be modeled is still unclear. The lack of coherent solution to this modeling problem makes the proposed model valuable, as it is simple in nature and reflects the data we have the best.
Lastly, the main improvements that come out of this research are in on the computational front, by finding a novel method for calculating average spectral accelerations, which is the main quantity used in risk assessment. This method generates the distribution of this quantity in one step using numerical integration rather than the previously used Monte Carlo method. The method speeds up computations by a factor of 550 times.