Efficient Inference with Panel Data

On the pass-through of the Dutch 2001 and 2012 VAT increases to consumer prices

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Abstract

This thesis evaluates the pass-through of the 2001 and 2012 Dutch Value Added Tax (VAT) increases to customer prices using a difference-in-differences model. To this end, the first difference and feasible generalised least squares estimators are introduced. Contrary to the conventional pooled OLS estimator, these estimators always show significant causal effects for both VAT hikes. These also dramatically improve the accuracy of the estimates compared to earlier research on the incidence of VAT. For the 2012 tax increase, the null hypothesis of full pass through is even rejected. This result is a novelty in the econometric literature. Even in more general settings, the estimators used in this thesis prove far superior over conventional causal estimation techniques of difference-in-differences models.

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