Wind Forecast Driven Trajectory Uncertainty in Idle Descents
Y.Q.F. Karelsz (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
J. Ellerbroek – Mentor (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
Ferdinand Dijkstra – Mentor (KDC mainport Schiphol)
P.C. Roling – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
F. Orefice – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
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Abstract
This paper investigates how descent wind forecast uncertainty affects VNAV-PATH idle descents and loss-of-separation (LoS) risk in dense arrival traffic at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. A 3-DOF aircraft model, BADA performance data, KNMI wind forecasts, reconstructed FMS wind profiles, and arrival scenarios are used to assess operational consequences. The results show that wind forecast errors increase with forecast horizon and fewer uplink levels, affecting aircraft energy management, speed deviations, and the likelihood of thrust or spoiler intervention. Although aircraft pairs with LoS events exhibit larger speed and wind errors, increasing the share of older forecasts does not measurably increase the mean number of LoS cases per scenario. This suggests that traffic geometry and planned spacing primarily govern aggregate LoS occurrence. The findings support refreshing descent wind forecasts before top of descent (TOD), while highlighting the importance of wind profile reconstruction accuracy when evaluating the benefits of more recent forecasts.
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