The Weighty Challenge of Importing the Lightest Element
A techno-economic assessment of the dynamics between the first developing green hydrogen importing supply chains and domestic production by 2030
S.J.A. Rodenburg (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
G Korevaar – Mentor (TU Delft - Energy and Industry)
AJM van Wijk – Mentor (TU Delft - Energy and Industry)
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Abstract
Green hydrogen is anticipated to be pivotal in the decarbonisation of global energy systems. For the Netherlands, both domestic production and imports of green hydrogen are believed to be needed for effective decarbonisation. Yet, significant uncertainty surrounds the cost discrepancy between domestic productions and initial imports, largely attributed to insufficient comparability of different reports. This study conducted a techno-economic assessment (TEA) to better understand these cost dynamics.
To ensure that viable exporting countries are assessed a multicriteria analysis (MCA) was employed. Within this MCA, contributing factors underwent expert weighting. It was found that the earliest developing value chains might not necessarily be the most economical. Among potential initial exporters to the Netherlands, Chile, Spain, and the United States emerged as frontrunners, which led to their assessment in the TEA.
The study highlighted the importance of wind availability for cost-effective hydrogen production. Even with favourable wind conditions in the Dutch North Sea, the Netherlands faces higher hydrogen costs due to the added expenses of connecting the wind with an onshore electrolyser through the grid.
The costs of hydrogen transport were evaluated based on four possible hydrogen import development scenarios for transport as ammonia, liquified hydrogen and the liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) DBT. Results indicated that the costs of delivered hydrogen will likely range from similar to thrice that of domestic production across the different countries and carriers for the two scenarios where gigawatt supply chains are realised. Consequently, the study suggests that overseas imported green hydrogen will be more costly than domestically produced hydrogen in 2030.