Competitive potential of Hyperloop from a travellers' perspective

Abstract

Reaching the Paris Climate Agreement goals by 2050 is currently one of the largest societal challenges we are facing. Much is to be gained in the transport of people and goods, which accounts for 25% of the total carbon emissions in Europe. Presently, Air Passenger Transport (APT) hinders carbon emission reductions due to its large environmental impact and evermore growing market share (Van Goeverden et al., 2017). So far, the environmentally friendly high-speed rail only competes with APT up to approximately 600-800 kilometers. Hyperloop as kickstarted in 2015 by Elon Musk has the potential to substitute APT beyond that range, with electric propulsion of magnetically levitating passenger capsules within semi-vacuum tubes. However, research towards Hyperloop’s potential travel demand has remained sparse as of now. Within the financial appraisal of infrastructure projects, forecasted travel demand of the infrastructure is a vital aspect. Namely, ticket revenues and societal value through environmental benefits and travel time savings can result from travel demand. So far, only straightforward analyses have been done to forecast potential Hyperloop demand, using data from previous travel surveys that do not include Hyperloop. Used data does not cater to travellers’ overall (dis)like for Hyperloop, or travellers’ trade-offs including Hyperloop-specific transport mode attributes. Moreover, since potential Hyperloop implementation lies in the future, various future contexts surrounding travel behavior could also influence its competitive potential. To account for these issues, this research estimates future Hyperloop travel demand by conducting a Stated Choice Experiment (SCE) amongst Dutch travellers. Here, future decision-making contexts and travellers’ (dis)like for Hyperloop are included.