Statistical Impact Prediction of Space Debris
The Uncertainty Propagation Approach
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Abstract
Due to the increasing number of space debris objects in orbit around Earth, the need increases for accurate predictions of impact time and location. These predictions are inherently statistical due to the large number of uncertainties in predicting the atmospheric decay and entry trajectories of these objects. Currently, Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain statistical information about the impact time and location. A direct method is applied to propagate uncertainty in the state of a decaying object to obtain statistical information. This method propagates a PDF of the state in time, instead of single trajectories. Impact time distributions are obtained using this method and Monte Carlo for the Delta-K rocket body.