Towards the design of resilient waste-to-energy systems using Bayesian networks

Abstract

The concept of resilience has emerged from various domains to address how systems, people and organizations can handle uncertainty. This paper presents a method to improve the resilience of an engineering system by maximizing the system economic lifecycle value, as measured by Net Present Value, under uncertainty. The method is applied to a Waste-to-Energy system based in Singapore and the impact of combining robust and flexible design strategies to improve resilience are discussed. Robust strategies involve optimizing the initial capacity of the system while Bayesian Networks are implemented to choose the flexible expansion strategy that should be deployed given the current observations of demand uncertainties. The Bayesian Network shows promise and should be considered further where decisions are more complex. Resilience is further assessed by varying the volatility of the stochastic demand in the simulation. Increasing volatility generally made the system perform worse since not all demand could be converted to revenue due to capacity constraints. Flexibility shows increased value compared to a fixed design. However, when the system is allowed to upgrade too often, the costs of implementation negates the revenue increase. The better design is to have a high initial capacity, such that there is less restriction on the demand with two or three expansions.