How information heterogeneity influences traffic congestion during hurricane evacuation

Abstract

We investigate the effects of the amount and kind of information received by hurricane evacuees on the level of urban evacuation-induced traffic congestion. With the help of agent-based simulation driven by survey data for evacuees of Hurricane Matthew in Jacksonville, FL, we find that sending evacuation notices to households stands out as the most dominant factor impacting evacuation congestion. We use travel time metrics and introduce a percolation congestion index to show that congestion increases marginally by providing more mandatory than voluntary notices, which compensates for the benefits that are obtained by higher evacuation. We also observe that segments of commonly used evacuation routes in the flood-prone areas are more likely to be congested during the evacuation period than the other road segments. This study affirms the importance of evacuation notices in evacuation planning and suggests that planning agencies might benefit by strategically sending these notices to people to control peak congestion.