Demographic and Behavioural Patterns in Support for Sustainable Mobility Policies in the Netherlands

Abstract

This thesis investigates how demographic and behavioural factors shape public support for sustainable mobility policies in the Netherlands. Motivated by climate ambitions such as the European Green Deal and the Dutch Climate Agreement, it recognises that technical solutions alone are insufficient. Public acceptance and behavioural change are essential to achieving a successful mobility transition. By focusing on which social groups support sustainable policies, and why, the study offers valuable insights for inclusive, context-sensitive policymaking.

A mixed-methods approach was adopted. The research draws on data from a large-scale Participatory Value Evaluation (PVE) involving 5,643 Dutch participants. The study first analyses quantitative data, applying correlation analysis, policy preference ranking, and K-means clustering to identify patterns in support. This is followed by qualitative thematic analysis of participants’ open-ended responses to capture underlying motivations.

The literature review provided the theoretical grounding, highlighting two key behavioural models: the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Norm Activation Model (NAM). These frameworks explore how attitudes, social norms, personal responsibility, and behavioural control shape mobility behaviour. The literature also classifies policy strategies as hedonic, gain-driven, or normative, and categorises tools as “carrots” (incentives), “sticks” (regulations), and “sermons” (information).

Key findings show that support for sustainable mobility varies significantly across demographic groups and mobility behaviours. Younger, higher-educated, and urban residents are more supportive of sustainability goals, while older, lower-educated, and rural populations tend to be less supportive. Behaviourally, frequent car use correlates negatively with policy support, while regular users of public transport and bicycles are more supportive. These relationships underscore how lived mobility experiences shape public attitudes.

Three distinct respondent clusters were identified:
• Suburban & Traditional: Older, moderately educated, frequent car users with moderate support for sustainability.
• Urban & Green: Young, highly educated urban residents using public transport and bicycles, showing strong support.
• Lower Educated & Motorist: Older, rural, lower-educated respondents with low public transport or cycling use and minimal support.

Policy preference analysis revealed broad support for measures that improve and subsidise public transport. These policies were favoured across all groups, especially by urban and cost-conscious respondents. Conversely, policies that raise fuel prices were unpopular across all groups. Young and urban participants supported policies related to cycling infrastructure and transit-oriented housing. Lower-educated groups preferred car-supportive policies like electric vehicle subsidies.

The qualitative analysis reinforced these findings. Supportive arguments commonly cited climate and environmental protection, the need to encourage sustainable travel, and the role of government leadership. Opposition was often rooted in scepticism, perceived overemphasis on sustainability, cost concerns, and mistrust in government.

The thesis concludes that effective sustainable mobility policies must be tailored to diverse societal groups. Policymakers should frame policies in ways that emphasise affordability, safety, and convenience. Information campaigns grounded in TPB and NAM principles can increase receptivity, especially among less supportive populations. Overall, the integration of demographic, behavioural, and motivational insights can enhance both the fairness and effectiveness of the mobility transition.